Analysis: Platner may be done. Voters' hunger for change and willingness to take risks will remain

With candidates having so many ways to raise money and draw attention — and the public having so little faith in longstanding institutions — the country remains primed for new waves of anti-establishment campaigns, no matter how erratic.

“I think there’s going to be a lot more of this," said Seth Masket, a political scientist at the University of Denver.

Platner initially surged on the scene with a grassroots campaign in defiance of Democratic leaders, who had rallied around 78-year-old Maine Gov. Janet Mills as their best hope of unseating Republican Sen. Susan Collins. But Mills dropped out as Platner consolidated support, weathering a steady drumbeat of revelations over a tattoo recognized as a Nazi symbol, extramarital sexting and controversial social media posts that would have wrecked a typical campaign.

But that changed this week when a former girlfriend told reporters that Platner drunkenly entered her house and sexually assaulted her in 2021, an allegation the candidate denied. Even Platner's most ardent supporters have urged him to drop out by July 13, which would allow the state party to replace him with a new candidate in a must-win race for Democrats who already faced a narrow path to wrest back control of the Senate in November.

Traditionally, political parties avoid this sort of last-minute surprise with an internal system to vet candidates. In addition, people running for national office have often previously served in local or state positions and have gone through scrutiny at that level.

That doesn't happen as much for populists who can bypass party gatekeepers and even base their entire campaigns on not being beholden to political professionals.

“I understand that people are tired of politics as usual, it’s just that part of the normal political process does vet candidates, and I think people should be worried about unvetted candidates facing Republicans who will have hundreds of millions of dollars to spend to exploit weaknesses,” said Neera Tanden, a veteran Democrat who has sparred with progressives over the years and currently leads the Center for American Progress, a party-aligned think tank.

A familiar story for Republicans

Of course, establishment-backed candidates can flame out, too. The last Democrat to lose a Senate race in a sex scandal was North Carolina's Cal Cunningham, a lawyer and former state senator who fell narrowly short of Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in 2020 after the disclosure of explicit text messages with a woman who wasn't his wife.

Plenty of incumbents of all ideological stripes have been brought down by scandals. The biggest recent win by a Democratic outsider came when Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, won the New York mayor's primary last year against Andrew Cuomo, a former governor who was hobbled by a sex scandal.

Still, there's a longstanding pattern of insurgent candidates getting into trouble of all kinds.

Just ask Republicans. After the rise of the Tea Party in 2010, they lost multiple winnable races because outsiders defied their own party establishment to win primaries, only to lose in the general election. Republicans ended up missing a chance to gain control of the Senate despite outrage over President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act.

The party lost more Senate races in 2012 only to launch an internal war against outsider candidates and capture the chamber with more traditional nominees in 2014.

Liberal activists have openly hungered for a Democratic variant of the Tea Party, which emerged from disgust at Republican losses during Obama's presidency. Democratic voters stood by their party establishment during Trump's first term, but after President Joe Biden's collapse and Trump's return last year they have become enraged at their own party leaders.

In primary after primary, Democratic voters have favored younger, outsider candidates this year.

“The Democrats are going through what we went through 15 or 20 years ago,” said Matt Gorman, a veteran Republican strategist. “They're just in their second inning of this. The rubber's going to hit the road when they start losing winnable Senate seats.”

Of course, Trump is the ultimate example of the outsider, populist candidate, one who ran openly disparaging his party's leadership and now controls it with an iron fist. He has, however, an advantage that Platner and many other anti-establishment candidates lack — a decades-long, carefully cultivated image that dominated popular culture long before he ran for office.

“If you don't have a 25-year hard name ID before jumping into politics, this matters,” Gorman said of scandals like Platner's.

Liberals still want party to keep its distance

Even Platner backers like liberal podcaster Tommy Vietor were having second thoughts about the process this week.

“Obviously, a big lesson here is that vetting is really important, and some of the vetting gets done by campaigns themselves, and then ultimately it will be done by the media if the campaigns don’t figure that part out,” said Vietor on the Pod Save America podcast.

Vietor, who boosted Platner but has now called for him to drop out, noted that traditional vetting often doesn't pick up allegations of assault like the one threatening to sink Platner's campaign, but it can highlight red flags.

Even though Platner has not formally decided to withdraw, Maine's Democratic politicians are acting as if he has. State Sen. Troy Jackson, another progressive who opted to run unsuccessfully in the party's primary for governor, filed papers for his Senate candidacy on Tuesday, even with Platner still the nominee. Other Maine aspirants began jockeying for position before the July 27 deadline for choosing a replacement.

Platner's liberal backers have demanded he be replaced by a similarly anti-establishment candidate, saying that would best reflect the will of the state's Democratic voters who overwhelmingly backed Platner in the primary just a month ago. Whatever happens, it seems likely to leave more scar tissue along the fault lines that have split the party already this year.

Adam Green of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which backed Platner but now has called for him to leave the race, said he hopes Platner’s replacement will have a similar agenda and will not let the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm “just run their campaign.”

“People clearly wanted a voice for systemic change,” Green said. “But it’s a little unclear exactly what’s happening behind the scenes.”

EDITOR’S NOTE — Nicholas Riccardi covers politics and democracy for the AP.

Associated Press writers Matt Brown in Minneapolis and Meg Kinnard in Columbia, S.C., contributed to this report.