Brad Keselowski needs a little bit of luck to keep up with the Toyotas at Talladega

Keselowski will try to move into sole possession of second place Sunday in the first of two ‘Dega races this season. It’s far from a sure thing, especially given Toyota’s dominance through the first nine races.

“Just need a little bit of luck," he said. “I had two great races at Talladega in ’24 and two just OK or bad races in ’25. I guess that means I’m probably on the other side of the cycle. So I’m hopeful to make it count and hope we’re on the positive side of that cycle.”

Keselowski was the runner-up in both events in 2024. He wrecked out of the April race a year ago and then notched a 10th-place finish in October. His last win at NASCAR's longest track came in 2021.

“Racers tend to count their losses more than they count their wins,” Keselowski said. “I don’t know why that is, probably because you have more losses than you have wins. But I feel like there’s probably a few races at Talladega that I should have won and I didn’t. And then there’s probably a few I shouldn’t have won that I did.

“So maybe it all kind of works out in the wash.”

Cup Series points leader Tyler Reddick, who drives for 23XI Racing and NBA great Michael Jordan, has five wins through the first two months. Toyota has claimed seven of the nine events, with Denny Hamlin and Ty Gibbs picking up two for Joe Gibbs Racing.

Reddick’s pace has been matched four times previously in NASCAR’s top series and not since Earnhardt Sr. started off the 1987 season that way. The Intimidator went on to win six more times while claiming the third of his seven championships, and there’s little to make it seem that Reddick can’t do the same thing.

“None of the Fords have any chance of beating the Toyotas right now until they get a new car or rules concessions,” Keselowski said. “The only opportunity we have to beat them is in areas where aerodynamics aren’t as important on the car.”

That could be Talladega, where pack racing in a draft negates aerodynamic advantages. Keselowski pointed to superspeedways and short tracks as the best shot at upsetting anyone in a Toyota.

Then again, Reddick won the season-opening Daytona 500 and the following week at Atlanta.

“The other tracks, they just have so much more speed,” said Keselowski, who is ranked 10th in points through nine events. “Even when they don’t execute very well and we execute at a high degree, the speed differential makes up for it.”

Qualifying gets rained out

NASCAR canceled qualifying for the Jack Links 500 because of rain. The sanctioning body pulled the plug early Saturday after overnight rain continued into the early morning hours.

The weather is expected to improve throughout the day, but scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast.

Reddick will start from the pole based on NASCAR’s qualifying metrics. Kyle Larson will start second, followed by Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace and Chase Briscoe. Keselowski will start sixth.

Casey Mears was the lone driver to not qualify.

Oddsmakers list Blaney as the race favorite

Despite Toyota’s dominance, oddsmakers installed Ford drivers Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano as the prerace favorites. Blaney is plus-1000 to win, following by Logano (plus-1200) and William Byron (plus-1400).

Reddick is the next choice at plus-1500. Keselowski is plus-1600.

AP auto racing: https://apnews.com/hub/auto-racing