Editor,
I appreciated reading Jack Daane’s analysis of the 2024 presidential election (“Apathy wins”) published Feb. 1, however, I didn’t share his conclusion. Daane references the Election Lab at the University of Florida that’s specialty is producing national and state voter turnout data for U.S. general elections.
The lab found that the “voting-eligible population turnout rate,” a key metric that Daane omitted in his letter, was 63.88% in 2024, down from 66.4% in 2020, which saw the highest turnout rate since 1900, according to the lab’s graph dating back to 1789. The second highest was last year, edging out the 1960 Kennedy v. Nixon race by a scant 0.1% point.
Former President Trump’s historic reelection, the first nonconsecutive second term since Grover Cleveland’s defeat of Benjamin Harrison in 1892, should not be interpreted as a lack of turnout, i.e., apathy, due to this relatively high participation rate.
Trump increased his votes by 3 million while Harris decreased hers by 6 million compared to 2020. A Fox News poll published Jan. 15 provides the best explanation I’ve seen to explain Harris’ lack of support. It found that “by a 13-point margin, more voters view Trump’s victory as a referendum on President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ policies and performance (54%) than a validation of Trump’s (41%).”
In other words, rather than a binary choice, it was more of an up or down vote for Harris-Walz, somewhat similar to the referendum on President Trump’s first term in 2020.
Irvin Dawid
Burlingame
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(20) comments
I would rather say it was a referendum on how incredibly stupid so many people are!
Didn't they learn anything from Trump's first term, and how he messed up everything, including the Covid response, killing hundreds of thousands because of his denial and unprofessional response to the pandemic?
Hi Jorg,
The voters did just what you suggest, at least those old enough to recall Trump's first term, But what you are missing is how voters thought of the last 4 years under Biden-Harris. Their "choice," to use the term, was a preference for the Trump years over the Biden-Harris years.
However, I prefer the 'referendum' perspective on the last 4 years rather than comparing them to Trump's first term. What Daane called 'apathy' were millions of people who chose not to vote - or not vote for president. Not voting by Dems and independents is essentially a no vote on the referendum. Think of Newsom's recall election: Voters had to decide two questions: whether Newsom should be recalled and, if so, who should replace him.
Jorg,
When you attack voters for "being incredibly stupid," you essentially give up any role of being objective - although I recognize that is not your intent. If you want to convince readers of your point, why insult those who voted for the candidate you opposed?
Good point, Irvin! However, it is so tempting to call a spade a spade, and knuckleheads what they are, - Trumpists!
Thanks for your letter, Mr. Dawid, detailing your take on recent presidential elections. I haven’t taken the time to review Election Lab statistics but I wonder whether they include statistics on the number of Republican vs. Democrat vs. Independent voters from the three elections since 2016. And whether the numbers of voters agree with historical norms. For instance, one of the conclusions for 2024 was that the election was “too big to rig” for Dems to steal. That begs the question as to whether votes in 2024 that previously went to Dems went for Trump or perhaps it shows a number of Dems who allegedly voted in 2020 were not “real” votes. Regardless, the American people have made their choice and the nightmare of Biden-Harris is over and a new golden age is dawning.
Terence,
I believe that breakdown is only available for early voting in those states that report it. Those votes total 43 million.
Dems, Reps, none/minor: 37.5%, 35.7%, 26.7%, respectively.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
TY: For your own education, you should read Chris Hayes’ #1 NY best seller book “The Sirens’ Call”! This well-known and highly respected MSNBC program leader has defined you to the core, as a desperate attention seeker he refers to as a “Grab guy”. Highly recommended!
Jorg, thanks for the book recommendation but if you don’t understand the Electoral College or the Second Amendment and if you don’t understand the definitions of “assault weapon” or “insurrection” or “incendiary” or “credit” to name a few, what makes you think I/we’d take your recommendations/criticisms seriously? As soon as you show some understanding of the concepts/definitions I’ve listed, perhaps we’ll begin to take you seriously. As it is now, you need much more education than, to use your words, the vast majority of us. TY in advance. BTW, how about RFK, Jr. being confirmed as HHS Secretary?
WOW, TY! You are indeed an amazing, attention craving dude, - so well described in Hayes’ book. You are even dead sure about the interpretation of the 2nd Amendment, which top lawyers have been arguing about since Day 1, and still do. Not to mention your solid understanding of the Electoral College, which was also highly debatable, but finally accepted as a compromise in order to get the Union off the ground. Think about how helpful you would have been back then - and how much badly needed attention you would have gathered!
Anyone else with an opinion on this issue, or TY’s attention needs?
Jorg, you’re boring us… We went through this a few days ago… It’s not just me who understands the original meaning of the 2nd Amendment or Electoral College. It is hundreds if not thousands of judges who have that same understanding. As for being helpful, I’m glad to be of help now. You’re welcome. BTW, I don’t feel I deserve your putting me on a high horse but with that comes responsibilities. You can help by being a nice chap and mucking out the stall. TY in advance. Have a blessed day!
OK, TY! So how exactly do you interpret the 2nd then?
TY: Too difficult? Sorry, I didn't mean to overwork your braincells, but to help you along:
There are only 2 possibilities referred to, - either the militia they talk about, or everybody else in the country, with no limitations re. age or former arm convictions, etc. Or do you imagine other possibilities? Let me know if you need any further clarification.
Jorg, it seems you’re the desperate attention seeker. Unfortunately you’re still boring us since we’ve gone over this before, multiple times. I’m not letting you cheat off my homework. Do your own. As I’ve said in the past, educate yourself by reading Supreme Court opinions in regards to rulings on the Second Amendment and the Electoral College. They’ll explain why your interpretations of both concepts are ignorant and misunderstood. Have a blessed day! BTW, I can barely see you from the vantage point on my high horse. You look the same as other rabid Democrat sheep. Educate yourself to stand above the crowd. TY in advance.
TY: So how do you interpret the 1st comma in the 2nd then? Misplaced, - or well placed?
Hi, Terence
I don't want to get mired in the 2A conversation, but the reference to "militia" is not a Bill of Rights collective right. It is an individual right. Americans do not have to join a militia unit to own a firearm. BTW... there is no collective right anyway... the Bill of Rights does not confer rights to groups. If the 2A was interpreted as a collective or group right, it would only benefit those who want to deny each and every American of his or her individual right to possess a firearm. Even the DNC's 2024 nominee owns a firearm, and she assured everyone that she is prepared to use it.
Hi Ray, you’re always welcome to join and become mired in Jorg’s desperate cries for attention. Jorg doesn’t have anything of value to add to current events so he attempts to continually rehash his debunked interpretations. All our dear readers have attempted to educate Jorg in the past but Jorg thinks that his interpretation of the 2A or EC should be taken over hundreds, if not thousands, of judges who have ruled on the merits of the 2A and EC. If only Jorg could devote the same amount of time to educating himself than he does in submitting nothingburger comments and LTE’s…
TY: I’m sure you are very highly educated, so I won’t even try to compete with you there with just the couple off higher degrees I have! However, at least I think I may finally have understood your fascination with Trump: As unmanly as his approach is, you would like to do what he habitually does to women, but you don’t dare! Not necessarily because you have more respect for women than he has, but you aren’t brave enough to do it yourself. Or is it because you have been slapped too many times by enraged women who disliked your frivolous grab attempt? Just wondering …
Jorg, I don’t need to be highly educated, just more educated than you – which, in your words, “the vast majority” are. And what are “off higher degrees”? Degrees printed from an inkjet/laser printer? Degrees created with crayons from grandkids? Instead of wasting time on nothingburgers and describing your hidden desires, why aren’t you educating yourself on the 2A or EC? Just wondering… Have a Trump-tastic day!
That Trump won after the Democrats spent $1.5 bil shows just how incompetent the Democrat Party has become. For the sake of our two party system, I hope the Democrats realize that they went too far left under Biden.
With enough dumb voters, we end up with someone like Trump!
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