The Ukraine crisis and possibility of war

Putin has nothing to gain by invading Ukraine. He’s already told the ethnic Russian majority in the eastern part of the country that Russia is not open to annexing any more Ukrainian-claimed territories — and, at most, that it wants autonomy for eastern Ukraine.

For Russia, the security issue is that President Clinton promised no eastward expansion of NATO, while he and a succession of U.S. administrations have since done the exact opposite.

On EU expansion, the problem is that, while membership for Ukraine would greatly expand its access to European agricultural markets, it would likely be a disaster for eastern Ukraine’s largely industrial economy, which has deep and vital ties to Russian industry and markets.

To see it from Putin’s point of view, suppose the situation were reversed: What if NATO and the EU had collapsed, the Warsaw Pact had expanded, and there was now a threat of Canada becoming a Soviet ally — and of Ottawa cutting trade with the United States, in favor of Eastern Europe?

In that scenario, would anyone be surprised if Biden were massing troops along the Canadian border? 

Mark Behrend

Redwood City