Election watch

On the surface, Super Tuesday is all about whether Bernie Sanders will be unstoppable, or his momentum will be blunted.

In a splintered field, the majority of voters (in an admittedly small sample) support someone who is not Sanders. As long as the field stays this crowded, he will continue to build a lead. 

It is unlikely the field will stay this large, especially after Tuesday. Donors move away from candidates with diminishing chances of winning. After Super Tuesday, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar may face that harsh reality.

But the ordinary rules don’t apply to Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer, each of whom has enough money to stay in as long as they want. And that means one of them could become the unity candidate around whom the Stop Bernie forces could coalesce. 

13TH SENATE RACE: The race to replace state Sen. Jerry Hill, D-San Mateo, is has been a principal focus of mine this election cycle, and many insiders still think it’s a race that is very much up for grabs. My colleague Sue Lempert has written extensively, and with customary acuity, about the backgrounds of the candidates. 

From a political perspective, It is clear the front-runners are Redwood City Councilwoman Shelly Masur and public interest entrepreneur Josh Becker. But I could formulate a plausible scenario in which each of the remaining candidates — Burlingame Councilman Mike Brownrigg, Millbrae Councilwoman Annie Oliva, former Assemblywoman Sally Lieber and even Republican Alexander Glew — could make it into the November general election.

And the reality is that we are in uncharted waters — a voter turnout that is new and not so easy to calculate. We know a vote-by-mail election means a higher turnout, as we saw in 2018. It also is likely to mean higher turnout among younger voters. What we don’t know is exactly who will show up and what their voting patterns are likely to be, because they don’t have one.

RELATIVE STRENGTHS: In a column some time ago, I said each of the candidates has a distinctive flaw — whether it’s a lack of relevant experience, a geographic disadvantage or the absence of a broad network of support. But this campaign has demonstrated that each of the candidates is well-meaning and certainly sufficiently qualified, and that any one of them will do the job earnestly and with good intent.

So, here is what we have learned affirmatively about the political strengths of the five Democrats in the race. A side note about money in the Peninsula’s most expensive legislative race: In reality, special interests don’t “buy” candidates. They support candidates they know and who already share their legislative priorities.

Becker comes to the race with a broad network of support among individuals within the tech industry. In his nonprofit work, he has worked closely with many industry figures. It also means they think of him as likely to be creative and innovative in tackling their main issues — housing and transportation.

Masur has the most extensive network of local elected officials, with whom she has worked in 10 years as a school board member and four as a councilmember. Running an education nonprofit allowed her to build alliances with the powerful statewide teachers’ organizations, who correctly perceive that she will make education a top priority.

Brownrigg essentially funded his own campaign, and he correctly argues that this freed him to spend more time taking the pulse of actual voters. And it means he would be unallied — another way to say independent.

Oliva has benefited immensely, directly and indirectly, from her long-standing ties to Realtors, and it can be assumed she will represent the industry where she has made her living, and that building more housing will be a top priority. And she gets credit for what must have been a difficult decision to talk openly about her own family’s struggles with addiction and homelessness, perhaps the most compelling personal story of the campaign.

Lieber has been in the Legislature before, she’s the only candidate from Santa Clara County, which is roughly one-third of the district. She has the closest ties to progressive Democrats, who might turn out in huge numbers Tuesday to support Sanders, and then might stick around on the ballot to vote in the 13th SD.

This year, the conventional wisdom has been neither. To paraphrase a line from “The West Wing,” there’s an election Tuesday. I’d watch.

SHAMELESS: Indeed, watch the live Election Night coverage on Peninsula TV. I’ll be co-hosting with Kevin Mullin and Melissa Michelson.

Mark Simon is a veteran journalist, whose career included 15 years as an executive at SamTrans and Caltrain. He can be reached at marksimon@smdailyjournal.com.