Nevada Republicans to decide on Trump-backed vs. experienced replacement for Rep. Mark Amodei

Republicans boast a large registration advantage in the district, and experts and strategists are watching the race for clues about how much influence Trump continues to hold over the party's voters as he enters the last half of his final term. Nevada Democrats, meanwhile, say they'll try to flip the seat despite the uphill climb and think Flippo could be an easier opponent because his ties to Trump could turn off nonpartisan voters in the swing county of Washoe, home to Reno.

Settelmeyer became a frontrunner when he entered the race with nearly two decades of political experience in the Legislature and state government. But Flippo quickly gained attention when he switched from a congressional race in southern Nevada. He began renting a house to run for the seat and brought with him endorsements from well-known conservative groups like Turning Point Action, founded by the late political activist Charlie Kirk.

Trump endorsed Flippo last week after both candidates had been fighting to show their ties to the president. Settelmeyer had been a co-chair of Trump's 2024 Nevada campaign.

“I love the State — The People are special! I will never let you down and, with David Flippo, I am just adding to that Statement,” Trump posted on his social media.

Race represents a changing GOP

The candidates have focused on the economy, water and land use — a major issue in Nevada where the majority of land is owned by the federal government — and they agree on many policies. That means their personalities and resumes have also been at the center of the campaign.

Flippo, a financial adviser, entered the race after well-known Nevada conservative figures declined to run, saying the race needed a “strong conservative.”

He's focused his attacks on Settelmeyer’s voting record, including Settelmeyer's support for allowing immigrants living in the country illegally to drive.

“I’m strong on my values, I’m stronger on the conservative principles, and I don’t have the voting record," Flippo said in a recent interview.

But Settelmeyer says his legislative record proves he understands the state and how to govern. He served in both the Senate and Assembly and as director of the Nevada Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. He's pledged to regularly commute back to Nevada from Washington, as Amodei did.

“It’s just very important that at the end of the day, that northern Nevada chooses a northern Nevadan to go to DC to represent northern Nevada,” Settelmeyer recently told a small crowd in Washoe Valley.

He's emphasized that message by pointing to Flippo's recent move to the district as well as his lack of political experience. Flippo ran in the Republican primary for Nevada’s 4th District in 2024 and lost.

“Twenty years ago, we would have said this race is probably a shoe-in for the more experienced candidate,” said Jeremy Gelman, a political science professor at the University of Nevada in Reno. “The way Republican primary politics have evolved, that’s not the case anymore.”

Candidates tow the MAGA line

Part of Amodei’s success was his ability to both support Trump’s agenda while occasionally speaking against him, said Fred Lokken, political science professor at the Truckee Meadows Community College in Reno.

He was the first House Republican to support an impeachment inquiry into Trump in 2019, though he ultimately voted against impeachment. He spoke critically of Trump's immigration crackdown in Minnesota earlier this year and opposed efforts to defund public broadcasting in 2025.

In Senate primaries in Louisiana and Texas, Trump’s support played a big role in the outcome, Gelman said. Trump is determining who will help get his top issues over the finish line in the last two years of his term, and likely viewed Flippo as a better ally because his campaign is focused on more national issues.

Flippo has the backing of national Republicans closely affiliated with Trump's “Make America Great Again” movement, such as former Rep. Matt Gaetz and the Freedom Caucus Fund, the political action committee for the hard-right conservative bloc of House Republicans. Trump, in his endorsement, noted Flippo has the backing of “the most Highly Respected MAGA Warriors in Nevada.”

Settelmeyer's campaign, meanwhile, said northern Nevada voters "deserve a representative who knows our issues, understands our communities, and has the experience to represent them in Washington, not someone who only moved here when a political opportunity opened up.”