NFL Picks

Everyone now knows Jacksonville is good, especially on defense.

The guys in Vegas do, too, but they apparently think the public isn't ready to accept the Jaguars. How else to explain that they go to Indianapolis as 7-point underdogs.

It's not like Jacksonville has a dismal history there. Two years ago, the Jaguars won 27-24 in the RCA Dome and last season they lost 10-3 in one of those games that had fantasy fans upset that Peyton Manning didn't throw enough.

Even with no Edgerrin James this year, there's still that large spread.

"They've dominated our division," Jags coach Jack Del Rio said. "Clearly, they've been in control of this division, and we're in pursuit of it. We have a goal of being division champions, and in order to do that, we've got to win in our division. Our first opportunity is this week against the Colts."

The Colts have a couple things in their favor.

One is the Monday night factor -- it's a short week on the road for the Jags. The other is the RCA Dome and its noise.

But DE Dwight Freeney could be out with a leg injury and Martin Gramatica could be the kicker in place of Adam Vinatieri, who has groin problems. Without Freeney, there's less pressure on Byron Leftwich, who has those tall targets to throw to over the smallish Indy DBs (see Plaxico Burress leaping over Nick Harper for a touchdown on opening night.)

Still, despite home wins over good teams, a short week might make a road win over another top team a little too tough for the Jags. Fantasy players might want to deactivate Manning. But stay with Indy.

COLTS, 17-12

Chicago (-3) at Minnesota

Instant gratification: Chicago fans are anticipating a Super Bowl and an MVP award for Rex Grossman.

Wins over Green Bay and Detroit are not wins AT Washington and over Carolina.

BEARS, 13-12

Cincinnati (+2 1/2) at

Pittsburgh

Let's see if Ben Roethlisberger shakes off the rust against the Bengals' improved defense.

Home cooking.

STEELERS, 26-20

Atlanta (-3) at New Orleans (Monday night)

There will be a lot of emotion in the Superdome for the revived Saints. But is the defense up to stopping Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn?

FALCONS, 31-23

Denver (+7) at New England

Given how the Denver fans regard Jake Plummer, he's better off on the road.

But the Patriots, who have lost four of their last five with the Broncos, get revenge for the AFC playoff loss.

PATRIOTS 20-10

New York Giants (+3 1/2)

at Seattle

The Giants would have won here last season if Jay Feely hadn't blown three field goal attempts. They're also way up after the comeback win in Philly, and the Seahawks' offense isn't in gear yet.

GIANTS, 24-23

Carolina (minus 3) at Tampa Bay

The Panthers aren't the same without Steve Smith. But the Bucs have just three points in two games and Smith might play.

PANTHERS, 13-3.

New York Jets (plus 5 1/2) at Buffalo

The Jets don't quit, as they demonstrated against the Patriots.

JETS, 17-16.

Washington (minus 4) at Houston

It would be nice to think the Texans could win. But the Washington defense will be too good on its second Texas trip in two weeks.

REDSKINS 17-9

Baltimore (minus 6 1/2) at Cleveland

Kellen Winslow thinks the Browns should throw deep more often. OK, try that here and see what happens.

RAVENS, 27-0.

Philadelphia (minus 6) at San Francisco

The 49ers are better, especially at home. But Donovan McNabb is back in form.

EAGLES, 24-17

St. Louis (plus 4 1/2) at Arizona

This could be James' breakout game.

CARDINALS, 27-20

Tennessee (plus 11) at Miami

If Daunte Culpepper thinks he has trouble, he should look across the field at Kerry Collins.

DOLPHINS, 22-2

Green Bay (plus 6 1/2) at Detroit

Roy Williams would be better off guaranteeing this one.

LIONS, 11-2

LAST WEEK: 8-8 (spread) 12-4 (straight up)

SEASON 13-16-1 (spread); 21-11 (straight up)<