How left will San Mateo County go?

Supervisor David Canepa is running for reelection in District 5, seeking his third and final term on the board. He is unopposed and likely to remain that way — Canepa may be the most widely known elected official in the county.

The other two board seats are open — Dave Pine is termed out in District 1, as is Warren Slocum in District 4.

Councilmembers Emily Beach, of Burlingame, and Gina Papan, of Millbrae, are running for the Pine seat. Both are considered moderates.

Moderate is a confounding and misleading label that has attached itself uncomfortably to the political discourse. Virtually every leading political figure in the county is a political progressive — well on the left most issues. Increasingly, among insiders, there is a growing preference for an alternative to moderate: pragmatic.

This distinction may be even more telling on a board that is willing to reach beyond mainstream progressive toward radical. At least two recent matters to come to the board, each the initiative of Supervisor Noelia Corzo, seem to signal a hard left shift. The board, by a 4-1 vote, adopted a policy of noncooperation with ICE that extends beyond the most progressive positions by other Bay Area cities, most notably San Francisco. The board recently considered a “tenant protection” ordinance that would have radically changed the nature of landlord-tenant relations, shifting the balance toward tenants. The measure was not adopted. But expect it to return, especially if the next election brings someone aligned with Corzo.

Up to now, Corzo’s allies on the board have been Canepa on the ICE matter, and Slocum on both matters.

Here is where it gets even more interesting.

While the race between Papan and Beach is unlikely to tilt the board one way or the other, the race for the Slocum seat probably will determine if a hard-line progressive majority will be setting the board’s agenda.

That race has three candidates — East Palo Alto Councilmember Lisa Gauthier, criminal justice advocate Paul Bocanegra, and Maggie Cornejo, former aide to Slocum and now director of Finance and Government Relations for the Boys and Girls Club of the Peninsula.

Gauthier is considered a moderate or a pragmatist. Cornejo, although she has no political profile yet, has been slotted with the progressives. Gauthier is endorsed by Slocum; Cornejo is backed by Corzo.

Perhaps none of this has to do with a progressive/pragmatist split, but the 2024 supervisor campaigns will be the most consequential election in 50 years. In 1974, two newcomers — John Ward and Ed Bacciocco — upset the status quo, ousting two long-standing, seemingly invincible incumbents, Bob St. Clair and Gerald Day. Six years later, Jackie Speier took out the remaining board mainstay, 20-year incumbent James Fitzgerald, and a new era was underway.

It could be argued this kind of changing of the guard is not only inevitable, but long overdue. Either way, 2024 promises to be a watershed year.

POWER OF THE PEN: Or the press. Or, you know, me. Less than a week after we railed against the proposal for a $1.50 increase on region bridges, author Scott Wiener of San Francisco put the idea on “pause,” which often does not work when you want Alexa to stop the music for just a moment. Yes, I will take full credit for this turnabout, no matter how undeserving.

The opposition to this was so widespread and vehement that you would think Wiener would give it a full stop. This is not how he does things, if his push for aggressive housing policies is a clue.

MEANWHILE: Yes, it is still 2023, but already there are rumors about 2026. Canepa, whose reelection may be inevitable, but still has yet to occur, is said to be openly telling people he plans to run in 2026 for the office of chief elections officer and assessor-county clerk-recorder. The job currently, and lengthily, is held by Mark Church, who was reelected last year. Church has not said if he will run for a fourth term. This may not matter to the restless Canepa. This office also runs the county election.

NOTHING TO SQUAWK ABOUT: Foster City, amid countless other accolades, was awarded the “Happy Honk” from Marin County nonprofit In Defense of Animals for the decision to forgo lethal means against the Canada geese that keep raising the bacteria levels in the city’s signature lagoons.

Apparently, poisoning people is preferable to poisoning geese.

Mark Simon is a veteran journalist, whose career included 15 years as an executive at SamTrans and Caltrain. He can be reached at marksimon@smdailyjournal.com.