Golly, even more notes, quotes and dust motes

In a news release issued yesterday that is a rehash of the last several news releases (reuse and recycle also applies to information, apparently), Liccardo touts a newish poll showing him ahead of Low by 10 points among likely voters. The “commanding lead,” as it is described in the news release, grows to 12 points once these likely-ites are given “positive information” on the two candidates. The undecided drops from 29 points to 18 points.

Here is the thing about head-to-head polls (not just this one, but any poll about a November race): They tell voters little or nothing useful about what might happen in November.

Imagine a photo taken yesterday of a room full of people. All the photo tells you is where they were at that moment. It provides no insight on how they got there or where they might be going. A poll that shows a modest undecided speaks more to the question asked in the poll: If you had to vote today, who would you vote for? Of course, no one has to vote for nearly five months, which means that some larger percentage of poll respondents still regard themselves as undecided.

Liccardo’s commanding lead is not all that commanding. Liccardo’s primary win was only by a margin of 5 points. He got 21% of the vote, which means, to state the obvious, that 79% of voters who had a chance to vote for Liccardo chose someone else. Add in Low’s 16.6%, and more than 60% of the voters are up for grabs. They will be the object of a campaign that involves more than the “positive information” provided by the Liccardo pollsters. This is a campaign likely to be marked by bitter exchanges and some fascinating developments.

Not the least of which will be the involvement on Liccardo’s behalf of former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who ponied up $500,000 in the primary for a super PAC supporting Liccardo. And, it turns out, Bloomberg was the mystery funder of the recount, as reported by Bay Area News Group, to the tune of $100,000.

This will be a very expensive race — as in millions of dollars — with money flowing into both campaigns, as well as independent spending. This is going to be a bumpy ride.

HYPER LOCAL: There is a new entrant in the San Mateo City Council District 2 race. Charles Hansen has filed the appropriate paperwork to run against Democratic activist and legislative aide Nicole Fernandez. Hansen is a chief programs officer for Peninsula Family Service, a San Mateo-based community services nonprofit. He is said to have moved into the district only recently. He did not respond to a phone message inquiry. Speaking of which, Councilmember Amourence Lee, against whom Hansen and Fernandez would be running, is said to have held a fundraising event at which she made it clear she is running. As was the case last week, she did not respond this week to a request to talk about her candidacy. … In San Mateo District 4, community activist Danielle Cwirko-Godycki kicked off her campaign with an event last week. She has a long list of endorsements, including Rich Hedges, who currently represents this district, and says she has raised nearly $40,000 so far. She called the district the “infrastructure powerhouse” of the city. In endorsement statement, former state Sen. Jerry Hill said, “This is the most important council election in over 30 years. … I have never seen the city at such a critical political crossroads. The very future of civility, integrity, honesty, transparency and good, realistic, pragmatic thinking in our government is on the line today.” My heavens. …  Last week’s item about would-be candidates for Redwood City Council included real estate broker Michael Verdone. He is not running.

INDEPENDENT-ISH: A hefty 78 people have applied to the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors for the seven openings on the Independent Civilian Advisory Commission on the Sheriff’s Office. Of the seven members, the five supervisors each get one nominee, the sheriff gets one and county staff gets one. Supervisor Warren Slocum said he and colleague Dave Pine will announce the members on June 11. The commission may be independent in name, but the board chose to retain all the actual oversight authority.

Mark Simon is a veteran journalist, whose career included 15 years as an executive at SamTrans and Caltrain. He can be reached at marksimon@smdailyjournal.com.