Vance sets off to Pakistan to lead talks with Iran as war's ceasefire remains shaky

It comes as a tenuous, temporary ceasefire appears to be on the precipice of collapsing. The chasm between Iran’s public demands and those from the U.S. and its partner Israel seem irreconcilable. And in the U.S., where Vance might ask voters in two years’ time to make him the next president, there is growing political and economic pressure to wrap it up.

Vance is joined by Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who took part in three rounds of indirect talks with Iranian negotiators aimed at settling U.S. concerns about Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic weapons programs and its support for armed proxy groups in the Middle East before Trump and Israel launched the Feb. 28 war against Iran.

The White House has provided scant detail about the format of the talks — whether they will be direct or indirect — and has not provided specific expectations for the meeting.

But the arrival of Vance for negotiations marks a rare moment of high-level U.S. government engagement with the Iranian government. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the most direct contact had been when President Barack Obama in September 2013 called newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to discuss Iran’s nuclear program.

The two sides face a steep climb in making headway

Almost immediately after the White House and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire Tuesday evening, the sides found themselves at odds over terms of the truce.

Iran insisted that an end to the Israeli war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump said the truce did not cover Lebanon and the Israeli operations there continued.

The U.S., meanwhile, demanded that Iran make good on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Republic had closed the critical shipping waterway in response to Israel’s intensifying attacks against the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon.

Trump on Thursday night said Iran was “doing a very poor job” of allowing oil tankers to pass through, writing on social media, “That is not the agreement we have!”

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Vance, Witkoff, Kushner and Secretary of State Marco Rubio “have always been collaborating on these discussions” and said Trump was optimistic that a lasting deal can be reached during the two-week ceasefire. “President Trump has a proven track record of achieving good deals on behalf of the United States and the American people, and he will only accept one that puts America first,” Kelly said.

High stakes for peace — and for politics

It’s the highest-stakes moment thus far for Vance, who spent much of last year as more of a background player in the Trump White House, especially as others like Elon Musk and Rubio took turns as ever-present advisers for the president.

But Vance’s portfolio is fattening fast, first with a mission to root out fraud in government programs at home and now to help solve a U.S. war in the Middle East, where complicated doesn’t even begin to describe things.

Vance, who served in the Iraq War while in the Marines, spent two years as a U.S. senator and a little more than one as vice president, has little diplomatic experience.

On Wednesday, he dismissed speculation that the Iranians requested that he join the talks, telling reporters: “I don’t know that. I would be surprised if that was true. But, you know, I wanted to be involved because I thought I could make a difference.”

Jonathan Schanzer, a former Treasury Department official who is now executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank, said Vance, with little experience on Iran policy, is an interesting choice to lead the delegation.

Trump has noted his vice president was “less enthusiastic” than other top senior officials in the Republican administration, making Vance an intriguing interlocutor for the Iranian side, Schanzer said.

“I think they probably prefer him knowing that his perspective on foreign intervention is one of skepticism,” Schanzer said of the Iranians. “I do think that he’s going to need some help. I don’t think he’s ever been engaged in negotiations with this kind of weight, this kind of seriousness. This is as serious as it gets.”

The White House has not detailed who will be in the negotiations besides Vance, Witkoff and Kushner, but Kelly said officials from the National Security Council, State Department and Pentagon “will also play a supportive role.”

During early rounds of indirect nuclear talks with the Iranians before the war, Democrats and some nuclear experts questioned whether Kushner and Witkoff had enough technical knowledge. The White House has not said whether the pair, whom Trump has entrusted with some of his most difficult negotiations since returning to office, had a nuclear expert with them for those talks.

Negotiating peace is a tall order for any vice president

It’s not unusual for vice presidents to take on important negotiating roles for the president, said Joel Goldstein, a professor of law at Saint Louis University who is an expert on the history of the vice presidency.

But, he said, “I don’t recall a situation where a vice president has been sent to negotiate a ceasefire or peace in connection with a war the United States was involved with.”

Vance and Rubio are seen as the Republican Party’s strongest potential 2028 presidential contenders, though neither has given a clear answer about whether he intends to run.

The vice president's team is not thinking about the negotiations with an eye to future political considerations, according to a person familiar with discussions who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

As vice president, Vance inherently would carry any baggage of the administration if he eventually does run for president, Goldstein said. But stepping in to lead negotiations even further identifies him with the conflict.

“The fact that he’s involved in the negotiations in a very visible way, that means that, if things go south, that people will be pointing fingers at him,” Goldstein said.

At the same time, Goldstein said, “If things go well, then it will be something that he could point to.”