Four candidates for UN secretary-general audition this week. That's far fewer than in 2016

On Wednesday, U.N. trade chief Rebeca Grynspan will take center stage in the General Assembly hall, and finally, Senegal’s former President Macky Sall.

In 2016, a hotly contested race drew 13 candidates. What has changed?

For starters, the deeply polarized and conflict-wracked world of 2026 is far different from the more peaceful global climate in 2016, the year Donald Trump was elected president for the first time.

Add to that the diminished stature of the United Nations. A decade ago, the world organization was basking in its success in helping achieve the Paris climate agreement to curb global warming and an agreement by world leaders on 17 goals to promote global economic growth, preserve the environment and close the growing gap between rich and poor nations.

Today, the divisions among world powers are so deep that the U.N. has been unable to fulfill its primary role in ensuring global peace and security. The once powerful Security Council has been blocked from acting to halt wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran, among other conflicts, leaving the U.N. on the sidelines of major global crises.

The International Crisis Group’s Richard Gowan, a program director and U.N. watcher, said the current geopolitical scene has affected the race to succeed Guterres, whose second five-year term ends on Dec. 31.

He said 10 years ago, many candidates entered the race knowing they had little chance of winning, but used it to raise their profiles.

“There was no real cost associated with losing,” Gowan said. "This time around, potential candidates and the governments who sponsor them are much more cautious. There is a feeling that if a candidate puts a foot wrong and offends Washington or Beijing, it could cause real diplomatic damage.”

How the selection worked in 2016

In 2016, there was intense pressure to choose the first woman to lead the United Nations. Seven of the 13 candidates were women. But there was widespread agreement that Guterres performed best in what the U.N. calls the “interactive dialogue” with General Assembly members.

The U.N. Charter says little about choosing the secretary-general except that the General Assembly, which includes all members, should do so upon the recommendation of the Security Council. That gives the five permanent members of the U.N.’s most powerful body — the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France — the decision-making role and veto power over the selection.

By tradition, the secretary-general rotates by region. Guterres, a former Portuguese prime minister and U.N. refugee chief representing Europe, succeeded former South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon, who represented Asia. He followed Ghana’s Kofi Annan, who represented Africa.

Now, it should be Latin America’s turn, though Eastern Europe has never had a secretary-general and lost out in 2016.

Under U.N. rules, candidates must be nominated by a member nation — not necessarily their own. There is no time limit for nominations, and more candidates could appear, but in 2016 the Security Council started doing “straw polls” among the 13 candidates in late July, which basically served as a cutoff.

How the four candidates were nominated

During their sessions this week, the four candidates are likely to be asked about their vision for the job, global hot spots and the future of the United Nations — but anything goes.

Bachelet, 74, was the U.N. high commissioner for human rights after serving two non-consecutive terms as Chile's president. After Chile’s far-right leader, José Antonio Kast, became president in March, his government withdrew its support for Bachelet, a leftist. However, she remains a candidate because of nominations from Brazil and Mexico.

Grossi, 65, a former Argentine diplomat who has been director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency since 2019, was nominated by his home country.

Grynspan, 70, a former vice president of Costa Rica, has been secretary-general of the U.N. Trade and Development agency, UNCTAD, since 2021 and was also nominated by her country.

Sall, 64, was nominated by Burundi, but his home country, Senegal, told the African Union that it had not endorsed him. Neither did the divided 55-nation regional organization.

A fifth candidate, Argentine diplomat Virginia Gamba, a former U.N. representative for children in armed conflict, was nominated by the Maldives, but the Indian Ocean nation withdrew her candidacy in late March without giving a reason.

While there are only two female candidates, pressure for a madam secretary-general continues, including from Guterres, who has sought to achieve gender equality in his administration. Britain and France have also said they would like to see a woman at the helm.

The global advocacy group 1 for 8 Billion and GWL Voices, an organization of nearly 80 global female leaders, have been campaigning for a woman. GWL’s president and co-founder, Susana Malcorra, a former Argentine foreign minister and senior U.N. official, was a candidate for secretary-general in 2016.

Bachelet, however, already faces US opposition

In a March 25 letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, 28 Republican Senate and House members asked the United States to veto Bachelet, calling her “a pro-abortion zealot intent on using political authority to override state sovereignty in favor of extreme agendas.”

Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, was asked at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing last week by Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts of Nebraska — one of the letter’s signatories — about Bachelet’s fitness for the job. Waltz responded that he wasn’t in a position to say whether the U.S. would support or oppose her, but he said, “I share your concerns.”

Gowan said the odds that a woman would be chosen were seen as changing sharply when Trump returned to the White House.

“Before that, there was a feeling that this time a woman had to win, but now a lot of diplomats assume that Washington will insist on a male secretary-general on principle,” he said. “I am not sure that is necessarily correct.”