The world wants more high-protein products, but there's not enough whey to go around

The average U.S. supermarket now has 38,708 products advertising their protein content, according to NielsenIQ, a market research company. But the eagerness to appeal to ingredient-focused shoppers is causing shortages of food-grade whey protein and pushing prices to new records.

“Demand is very firm and seemingly outpacing supply for right now,” said Kathleen Wolfley, vice president of Ever.Ag Insights, a data provider and consulting company for the agriculture industry.

Wholesale prices for whey protein began rising in 2024, and the pace accelerated last year and so far this year, Wolfley said.

Whey protein concentrate with 80% protein – the type often used by food makers and supplement companies as a booster – is trading on the dairy commodities market at more than $13 per pound in the U.S., up 250% from a year ago, according to Ever.Ag. Whey protein isolate, a more refined vesion that contains at least 90% protein, is 150% more expensive than last year, the company said.

That's raising prices for consumers. U.S. prices for whey protein concentrate powder have increased by around 15% over the past year, while more premium whey isolate powder has seen steeper gains, according to Datasembly, a price-tracking company.

It’s a similar story in Europe. In late May, 80% whey protein concentrate hit a new record average of 26,450 euros ($30,518) per metric ton, a price more than double from less than a year earlier, according to DCA Market Intelligence, a Netherlands-based commodity pricing firm.

Here’s what’s happening with whey protein and when strained supplies might be alleviated.

Curds and whey

Milk contains two proteins: casein and whey. During the cheese-making process, the casein – which forms solid curds – is separated from the liquid whey, which is dried to form a powder. Every pound of cheese yields nine pounds of whey, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

U.S. milk consumption has fallen for decades as Americans shifted to beverages like sodas. But the appetite for cheese remained strong, Wolfley said. A nation of cheese-eaters generated a lot of whey protein, and some of the excess used to be exported to China and other countries.

The domestic hunger for high-protein snacks and meals is now keeping more whey protein in the U.S. for use as a food additive or a nutritional supplement. U.S. exports of 80% whey protein concentrate and whey protein isolate to China fell 47% from January through April compared to the same four-month period a year ago, according to Vesper, an Amsterdam-based company that tracks commodity prices.

“There simply isn’t enough product for the U.S. customer, and exports have therefore been paused as much as possible,” said Jasper Endlich, a Vesper dairy analyst.

China is seeking more whey protein from Europe, which also is seeing shortages thanks to reduced U.S. exports, Endlich said.

Whey and weight loss

Use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is one of the factors that has supercharged demand for whey protein concentrate, Wolfley said.

Obesity drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound are designed to suppress the appetites of people taking them. The foods they do eat need to be nutritionally dense, experts say. GLP-1 users often are advised to consume enough protein to help them feel full for longer and to retain muscle mass as they lose weight.

Around 6% of obese and diabetic patients in the U.S. and 2% of obese and diabetic patients worldwide were using GLP-1 drugs last year, according to an estimate by the investment bank Morgan Stanley. Some estimates have put GLP-1 use as high as 12% of the U.S. adult population, since not everyone on GLP-1 drugs is obese or diabetic.

Food and nutrition companies are creating added-protein products to attract those consumers as well as people who think drinking protein shakes to replace meals will help them lose weight.

Pricey protein

Tight supplies and higher costs have caused some manufacturers to increase the prices consumers pay for protein powder or protein-enriched products.

Now Foods, an Illinois-based maker of health foods and nutritional supplements, said tubs of whey protein powder are consistently the biggest seller in its sports nutrition category. But after two years of paying more for raw ingredients, the company raised the price of its own whey protein products earlier this year.

Bryan Morin, the sports brand manager at Now, said the company doesn't anticipate further price increases on whey protein powder this year. It's trying to absorb some of its increased costs by cutting back on discounts. It's also considering expanding its portfolio to include products made with milk protein concentrate, a powder that contains less whey and is cheaper.

“From our perspective, broader market dynamics continue to indicate a tight and evolving protein landscape,” Morin said.

More on the whey

Wolfley, at Ever.Ag, said manufacturers are investing in whey protein production, which should eventually improve supplies. But the relief won't be immediate.

Glanbia, an Irish nutrition company, said in November that it planned to increase its whey protein isolate production in New Mexico, but the additional capacity won't be in place until 2027. In February, Canadian dairy company Agropur said it intended to increase whey protein manufacturing at plants in Quebec, Nova Scotia, South Dakota and Wisconsin by 2029.

In the meantime, higher prices could cause some consumers to stop buying whey protein powders, especially at a time when groceries are getting more expensive overall, Wolfley said. Reduced retail demand might reduce shortages at the wholesale level.

“The supply-demand dynamics could start to improve, but I don’t know if that’s a tomorrow dynamic or within a year. Some of these things are going to take time,” Wolfley said.