In her letter published Thursday, “No comparing Biden with Trump,” Joanne Engelhardt wrote, “letter writers Joe Guttenbeil and Irvin David [sic] must be living on some distant planet to come to the conclusions they did in their Journal letters of June 12.”
Last I checked, Burlingame can be found on planet Earth.
What was disappointing was seeing Engelhardt misinterpret my letter, “It’s about Biden,” a response to Steven Howard’s June 6 letter titled, “It’s not about Trump.”
Mine was not a comparison of the presumptive nominees of the two major parties but about the nature of the election, that it was a referendum on the incumbent president, rather than a choice between the current and former presidents.
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Choices occur when the seat is open, as it was in 2016. Four years later, the election was a referendum on then-President Trump. Now it’s Biden’s turn to stand before voters who will evaluate his performance during the last four years on Nov. 5.
According to historical Gallup polling data, “incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost.” George W. Bush was the only recent incumbent with an approval rating below 50% to win reelection. It was 48%.
Biden’s job approval for May 1-23 was 39%, according to Gallup, down from 57% for April 1-21, 2021. The polling company lists the June approval ratings of incumbent presidents in 1992, 1980 and 1976 at 37%, 32% and 45%, respectively.
I believe Gallup started tracking presidential approval ratings in earnest with Harry Truman. Old "Give 'em Hell, Harry" was not very during his presidency but since he left office 70+ years ago, his numbers have improved. Joe's numbers are currently low... they are what they are. However, could Joe, like Harry 76 years ago, overcome unfavorable ratings? We may have a better idea about Joe's prospects this Thursday.
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(2) comments
Hello, Irvin
I believe Gallup started tracking presidential approval ratings in earnest with Harry Truman. Old "Give 'em Hell, Harry" was not very during his presidency but since he left office 70+ years ago, his numbers have improved. Joe's numbers are currently low... they are what they are. However, could Joe, like Harry 76 years ago, overcome unfavorable ratings? We may have a better idea about Joe's prospects this Thursday.
Ray,
You are sharp!
I wasn't sure how to deal with Truman, mainly because he 'beat the odds.'
He won his reelection with a 40% approval rating in June 1948.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/311825/presidential-job-approval-related-reelection-historically.aspx
In short, Truman provides the path for Biden to follow.
Suggested reading: POLITICO, 03/03/2024: Biden Can Still Win — If He Runs Like Harry Truman
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/03/03/biden-can-still-win-if-he-runs-like-harry-truman-00144499
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