Is it safe to fly?

TLDR; (too long, didn’t read for all of you still studying social media initialisms)

While it looks like the big four airlines (American, Delta, United and Southwest) have equal market share and risk, United and Southwest have significantly higher percentages of “historically troublesome” Boeing planes in their fleet flying domestically, which increases the probability that 1). something goes wrong and 2). it makes the U.S. news cycle. But that’s not the whole story.

From a market share perspective, things look fairly evenly spread. As of 2023, United holds 16% of the market, American has 17.1%, Southwest has 17.1%, and Delta has 17.8%. However, for local U.S. news, what really matters is how many of those planes are flown on domestic routes. In 2023, roughly one-third of United, American and Delta’s flights and about 86% of Southwest’s flights were domestic. 

Now, this is where things get interesting. Amongst the big four, Southwest by far has the largest fleet of Boeing 737’s at 100% of its total fleet of 797 planes with United at 52.3%, American at 38.28%, and Delta at 25.85%. When it comes to the 737 Max 8 and 9, Southwest has 28.48% (all Max 8), United has 18.25%, American 6.43%, and Delta 0%. If you recall, it was the Max 8 that was grounded 20 months back in 2019 after a fatal plane crash and a Max 9 that failed 33 of 89 audits after a panel blew off the plane before it reached cruising altitude in January 2024. 

So with American and Delta having very few 737 Max 8 and 9 planes active in their fleet, the probability of the two airlines having significant issues seems logically lower. At the surface, this correlates to the number of FAA reported incidents in the same timeframe as Boeing had a little more than twice the number of FAA reported incidents than Airbus since 2010. OK, all checking out still.

The thing is, every issue gets reported to the FAA. So you kind of have to dig into the data and see what’s really happening. Luckily for us, all of those reports are public record. 

I was curious, so I looked at every FAA reported incident with United as a sample set. Turns out, there are some patterns. 

So what are the biggest issues in reported incidents for United flights since 2010? Human error accounts for 40%. And, surprisingly, the majority of incidents are related to incidents that happen while grounded or taxiing, not while in the air. 

The second biggest issue? Accidents resulting from turbulence is the highest reported on board accident in the past 14 years. This is basically when the captain turns on the seat belt light and you don’t put your seat belt on. And 28.64% of FAA incident/accident reports from the past 14 years are accidents resulting from turbulence. Yup. Put your seat belt on. 

Perhaps this shouldn’t be surprising to anyone, but it was to me — the next highest reported on-board accident in the past 14 years on United flights are burns to flight attendants serving hot water or coffee. Maybe airlines should take note and switch to cold brew instead? It’s really delicious and no one gets burned? 

So it comes down to this. Numbers tell a story, but you really need to dig into the data and read the fine print. Injuries from tripping over luggage were reported several times in the past 14 years. So were engine fires. 

It may not have seemed like it from the current news cycle, but 2023 was the safest year on record with one accident every 0.88 million flights — out of a total of 37 million aircraft movements during the year. Yes, the probability of an overall incident seems higher on United or Southwest flights due to the Boeing Max 8 and 9, but it’s still incredibly small compared to say dying of heart disease which is 1 in 6; or accidental or intentional gun intent, which is 1 in 89; or a car crash, which is 1 in 93. Eat well, and happy flying, all. 

Annie Tsai is chief operating officer at Interact (tryinteract.com), early stage investor and advisor with The House Fund (thehouse.fund), and a member of the San Mateo County Housing and Community Development Committee. Find Annie on Twitter @meannie.