Ukraine will struggle to strike targets inside Russia without US intelligence

Why did the U.S. stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine?

The decision to withhold intelligence — and military aid — came on the heels of a tempestuous White House visit last week by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance want Zelenskyy to quickly accept a truce with Russia — which now controls one-fifth of his country – and to give up significant mineral rights to the U.S. to help fund any future support for Ukraine.

The Trump administration says Ukraine hasn't demonstrated sufficient willingness to seek peace with Russia, with whom the U.S. has held separate talks to try to bring an end to the war.

U.S. officials suggested Wednesday that the withdrawal of intelligence-sharing might only be a temporary measure to expedite truce negotiations, citing more positive talks since the White House blowup.

"We have taken a step back and are pausing and reviewing all aspects of this relationship," U.S. national security adviser Mike Waltz said Wednesday. CIA Director John Ratcliffe called the suspension a "pause."

Zelenskyy has repeatedly said he is ready to discuss peace, but that any deal must offer his country sufficient security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression. He has also publicly stated his regrets about the contentious, and televised, White House meeting.

Trump administration officials have said the deal for mineral rights would more closely bind the U.S. and Ukraine, giving Russian President Vladimir Putin pause before considering future malign action against Ukraine.

How will the lack of U.S. intelligence affect Ukraine?

The White House hasn't specified what aspects of intelligence-sharing have been suspended. But without help from the U.S. — which includes vital data captured by Elon Musk's Starlink satellites — Ukraine's ability to strike weapons and other targets inside Russia will be severely degraded.

Its attacks inside Russian territory — which rely on U.S.-provided longer-range weapons — have been key in deterring Russia's capabilities and advances. Ukraine relies on U.S. intelligence when operating U.S.-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, and the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS.

Ukraine also relies on U.S. intelligence as an early warning system to help it defend against Russian long-range missiles and drone strikes. Such intelligence in the war's early days allowed Ukraine to thwart Putin's hopes for a quick victory.

Before the recent restrictions imposed by the U.S., a rising tempo of Ukrainian strikes inside Russia — such as those targeting stores of ammunition — relieved pressure on Ukrainian troops on the front lines. It is one of the reasons Russia's advances in eastern Ukraine have slowed in recent weeks, analysts say.

Will the U.S. ever share intelligence again with Ukraine?

Waltz, Trump's national security adviser, said in a Fox News television interview that the suspension of intelligence-sharing could be reversed once Zelenskyy demonstrates to President Trump that he is sufficiently willing to discuss peace with Russia on Trump's terms.

Zelenskyy has said he would like to "make things right" with Trump, but that does not yet appear to have assuaged the U.S. — Ukraine's biggest military backer since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Officials from Ukraine and the U.S. will hold talks next week in Saudi Arabia next week, Zelenskyy said late Thursday.

In the meantime, Zelenskyy has been leaning into support from Europe, most of whose leaders are dismayed by the Trump administration's decision to deprive a key American ally of assistance needed to fight Russia.

On Thursday, European Union leaders launched a day of emergency talks to beef up their own security and ensure that Ukraine will still be protected.

It's unclear whether the American suspension affects the intelligence-sharing ties between Ukraine and other Western powers, including four of the Five Eyes, an intelligence sharing coalition of the U.S., Canada, U.K., Australia and New Zealand.

French defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said in a radio interview Thursday that his country would continue providing military intelligence to Ukraine. And French President Emmanuel Macron said he would talk with EU leaders about the possibility of using France's nuclear deterrent to protect the continent from Russian threats.