AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Mexico’s state primary

Running for the Democratic nomination to replace Lujan Grisham are former congresswoman and former U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. Haaland was the first Native American cabinet secretary and, if elected, would be the first Native American woman to serve as governor of any state.

The candidates in the Republican primary are former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, medical cannabis entrepreneur and former state cabinet secretary Duke Rodriguez and small business owner Doug Turner.

At the top of the ballot, Democratic U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján seeks a second term. He faces a challenge from business owner and community organizer Matt Dodson.

No names will appear on the Republican primary ballot for the U.S. Senate, but 2024 state Senate candidate Larry Marker is running for the nomination as a certified write-in candidate. He previously ran as a write-in candidate for land commissioner in 2022.

Under New Mexico election law, when a certified write-in candidate is the only candidate in a primary, that candidate must reach a certain vote threshold to win the nomination. The vote threshold is the same as the number of signatures required to qualify as an official write-in candidate. For statewide Republican primaries, the threshold is 2,351 votes. If Marker fails to reach the required vote threshold, no Republican U.S. Senate nominee will appear on the general election ballot.

In the Republican primaries for state auditor, treasurer and state House Districts 14 and 44, a lone write-in candidate is the only candidate seeking the nomination for each office. A Democratic write-in candidate is the sole candidate seeking the nomination for state House District 38. Each candidate must reach the vote threshold for their specific office to advance to the general election.

Bernalillo County, home to Albuquerque, is the state’s most populous and plays a pivotal role in both primaries and general elections. Other key counties to watch are Doña Ana, Santa Fe, Sandoval, San Juan and Valencia.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 7 p.m. MT, which is 9 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, land commissioner and state House. The AP will also determine whether write-in candidates for U.S. Senate, auditor, treasurer and three state House districts will advance to the general election.

Who gets to vote?

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in either primary.

How many voters are there?

As of April 30, there were about 1.4 million registered voters in New Mexico, including about 573,000 registered Democrats, about 443,000 registered Republicans and about 378,000 voters not affiliated with any party.

How many people actually vote?

About 125,000 Democratic primary votes and about 118,000 Republican primary votes were cast in 2022 gubernatorial primaries.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 55% of Democratic primary votes and about 48% of Republican primary votes in the 2024 primaries were cast before primary day. This was slightly higher than in the 2022 primaries.

As of Friday, about 94,000 Democratic primary ballots and about 46,000 Republican primary ballots had been cast in Tuesday’s election.

When are early and absentee votes released?

New Mexico’s 33 counties vary in terms of when they release different types of vote results. More than half tend to release all or almost of their mail and early in-person voting results in the first vote update of the night. In-person Election Day vote results are also included in the first vote update in some counties, but most are released over the course of the night.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2022 gubernatorial primary, the AP first reported results at 9:11 p.m. ET, or 11 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 2:50 a.m. ET, with more than 99% of total votes counted.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

Recounts in New Mexico are automatic if the vote margin is less than 0.25% of total votes cast in federal or statewide office, less than 0.5% for public education commissioner, district attorney and some countywide offices, and less than 1% for all other offices, including state legislators. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 154 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.