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Caltrain passengers are seen at the San Mateo Station.
This fall, Caltrain’s weekend ridership has matched or exceeded what it was in October and November 2019, though weekday ridership remains around 35% of pre-pandemic levels.
Since the agency’s full electrification launch in September, frequency has increased, which may help explain the boost in weekend ridership.
October’s weekend ridership exceeded its 2019 levels that same month, and this November’s average weekend ridership was about 90% of 2019’s ridership.
“Really notably, on Saturdays and Sundays, we’ve seen in excess of 100% growth — significantly in excess — and I think that’s proof in the pudding that our 30-minute service is really meeting the expectations and hopefully surpassing those expectations,” Caltrain Executive Director Michelle Bouchard said during a meeting Thursday, Dec. 5.
But like other major rail agencies — including BART — Caltrain has continued to struggle to recover its commuter base. Even since electrification, which came with more outreach and higher stop frequencies, early numbers show weekday commuting hasn’t increased much as a share of pre-pandemic levels.
“The commute, even when it does come back, is not going to be the commute pre-COVID, and we need to stand at the ready to be able to accommodate all of those types of [nontraditional] trips,” Bouchard said. “While we are growing in the commute period, where we’ve really seen the growth is where we’ve expanded the off-peak service, and so we’re really going to see that as the time to host more nontraditional trips.”
Without a full postpandemic recovery, many transit agencies in the region are contemplating a regional ballot measure that could provide much-needed funding to offset their fiscal cliffs. Starting in 2033, Caltrain is facing an $100 million annual deficit, and BART faces a $300 million shortfall in just a few years. The region’s transit financing agency, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, has been working toward finalizing a regional transit measure that could provide financial support for up to 30 years, depending on the final version approved. One of the ballot options would comprise the nine Bay Area counties, while another would be focused on just a few, including San Mateo, San Francisco and Alameda, though others could opt in. How it would be funded is yet to be determined, though payroll, parcel and sales taxes have been discussed as options. Gina Papan, one of San Mateo County’s representatives on the Metropolitan Transportation Commission board, has voiced apprehension over the measure options, stating the county has repeatedly requested the inclusion of certain conditions, such as an opt-out option, to no avail.
A finalized measure must be introduced to the state Legislature in early 2025 to be included in the 2026 ballot.
(650) 344-5200 ext. 102
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Thomas Morgan said:
If you enjoyed the column you should consider a paid subscription to help support local news.
Mike Caggiano said:
Hey Jon, so you have a pretty sharp sense of humor. I really get a kick out of it.
Thanks, and well said.
Mike Caggiano said:
Irv, really great letter explaining the realities in excellent and concise terms. Perfect! Bravo
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(1) comment
Folks, notice there’s never any reporting on what transit agencies are doing to save money, or any reporting on how transit agencies are operating efficiently? Notice ridership levels for the past 5 years are well under pre-pandemic levels yet transit agencies operate at 100% capacity? And let’s remember that 35% is the reported ridership level compared to pre-pandemic levels but how does it compare to transit agency capacity? Even if ridership were 5%, I’d bet transit agencies would still operate at 100%, wasting our taxpayer money to pay salaries and ever increasing pensions and benefits. Pay no attention to the scare tactics. Vote NO on any measures looking to bail out transit agencies. They’ve already shown they’ll not do their fair share.
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