Caltrain ridership up, just a bit

“It’s so highly dependent on the degree to which people return to offices for work,” said Caltrain Board Member Dave Pine, also a San Mateo County supervisor. “I have some optimism we will see a return to office work, which will help Caltrain.”

Employees have changed commute and work patterns while working from home, affecting train ridership recovery in the short and long term. Since the pandemic, Caltrain has found riders are doing more decentralized travel and fewer long-distance trips, with weekend ridership recovering faster than weekday. A Bay Area Council survey found only 23% of employers are currently in the office five days a week. The survey found close to 30% did not go into the office during December. Employers also predict less time in the office in the future, with around 44% of workers saying they would only come in three days a week. Previously, Caltrain ridership consisted of office commute trips to downtown San Francisco and Silicon Valley. Caltrain staff said it is unlikely to see a significant ridership recovery until people return to the office. Many Bay Area transit agencies also face the same reality. Caltrain found that at the end of 2021 versus before the pandemic, Caltrain commutes to downtown San Francisco decreased by more than 90%. However, a Caltrain survey found 70% of former riders expect to return to Caltrain once the pandemic is over.

Pine said while things would likely be fine in the long-term, the interim period was critical to adjusting to commuter behavior and addressing high Caltrain fixed costs. Caltrain Board Member Charles Stone, also a Belmont councilmember, said while it was impossible to get a solid read on ridership patterns in the coming years, companies will play a large role by setting work schedules for commuters.

“We will be following companies’ lead with what we end up doing, and we will certainly try and influence it in the small ways we can. However, it would be helpful if the bigger employers all had their employees in the office on the same days and there’s a recognizable commute pattern that reemerges that we can help meet the demand for,” Stone said.

Weekend ridership is recovering faster, with Saturdays at 52% of pre-pandemic levels and Sundays at 57% as of November 2021. The weakest recoveries at Caltrain stations have occurred in San Francisco, Mountain View and Sunnyvale, with the most robust recoveries in South San Francisco, Millbrae, Redwood City and Palo Alto. Caltrain is trying to meet new customer demand in a shifting and uncertain time. It wants to add more midday, weekend, and event-based service based on recent ridership patterns. It is also planning for various ridership recovery scenarios as it plans operations. Caltrain spokesperson Dan Lieberman said Caltrain hopes to see more riders in the near future with the San Francisco Giants returning to Oracle Park, offices beginning to reopen and Caltrain’s 50% off promotion for April.

Ridership also affects Caltrain’s financing. Caltrain relied heavily on ridership farebox revenue for income before the pandemic and faces significant financial cost challenges in the coming years due to lower ridership, the pandemic and project costs. Ridership levels can change projected budget revenue in the coming years, with the uncertainty of ridership returns affecting budget planning. Caltrain faces budget deficits in coming years and relied on federal funding assistance from the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act to balance its current budget.

While the future remains uncertain, Caltrain board members expressed cautious optimism for its ridership future. Caltrain Board Member Cindy Chavez, who also serves as Santa Clara County supervisor, believes rising gas prices and returning traffic congestion are factors that will convince people to take Caltrain in the short term.

“I think we are going to see people going back to services, particularly that they enjoyed in the first place,” Chavez said.