Over the last year, more people, including bicyclists, are riding Caltrain, and ridership has especially grown between San Jose and Gilroy on weekdays. The list of busiest trains stations also shifted modestly.
Weekend ridership has decreased, but not as drastically as one might guess given the decreased service levels on weekends due to electrification work.
Those are a few takeaways from the transit agency’s annual passenger counts.
While the annual count brought largely good news for Caltrain, most statistical changes are relatively minor and there’s often not a clear explanation for them.
“We’re taking these numbers and reading the tea leaves as to what it means,” Caltrain spokesman Dan Lieberman said.
Since 2017, ridership during peak and reverse peak hours has gone up 2.5 percent and 5.1 percent respectively, though midday and nighttime ridership has dropped 9.2 percent and 5.8 percent for a total increase in ridership of just 1.5 percent.
Lieberman attributed the overall jump in ridership to congestion on Highway 101 and to a relatively brief rainy season this year.
Average mid-weekday ridership on the Gilroy Extension jumped 15.4 percent in the last year, following a trend of increasing ridership in that area since 2011.
Lieberman said those numbers are an indication that the population is shifting to where housing is more plentiful.
The order of busiest stations on weekdays changed modestly in the last year. Menlo Park was the 10th busiest station in 2017, but that rank now belongs to the 22nd Avenue station, and Sunnyvale and Millbrae have traded spots over the last year — they’re now ranked sixth and seventh place, respectively.
Ridership has increased at 18 Caltrain stations, especially at Hayward Park, College Park and Belmont, but is down at 11 stations, including South San Francisco and Menlo Park.
Bike ridership has seen a 6 percent average mid-weekday increase since 2017 and bicyclists are not getting bumped off of overcrowded trains as often. Lieberman said the bike ridership increase could also be explained by this year’s shorter rainy season, and bumps have been steadily decreasing since the agency added a third bike car in 2016.
Caltrain has also changed the methodology for its passenger counts, switching from the average weekday ridership statistic to the average mid-weekday ridership statistic. The new methodology requires fewer hours of labor and is expected to save the agency $400,000 to $500,000 a year.
A key findings report with more detailed analysis of passenger counts will be published by the end of the month, Lieberman said.
(4) comments
CalTrain seems to have a problem with basic math. A few years ago when rider demand was growing, CalTrain reported publicly train are running at 100% capacity. That of course was not true. Then the train magic miracle occurred: they added another car, and increased capacity by 20%. Now they are telling us that a change in their accounting method for passengers could save them $400,000 or more - with a straight face? Don't they have computers that spit out reports like the rest of us do? Why should there be any significant cost attributed to collecting data, and running a simple report, or is that just another miscommunication? Why can't they ct back service during the lower demand times?
The $400k figure sounded like it came from having people onboard trains taking ridership measurements only one day a week (e.g. Wednesday) vs across several days in a week. It seems pretty feasible that this reduces the number of onboard field surveys they need to staff for, which would reduce costs. I don't find this outlandish.
See slide titled "Data Collection Methodology" at http://www.caltrain.com/Assets/__Agendas+and+Minutes/JPB/2018/2018-09-06+JPB+REVISED+PASSENGER+COUNT.pdf
http://www.caltrain.com/about/bod/Board_of_Directors_Meeting_Calendar.html
See the September 6th agenda.
Can you please provide a link to the source Caltrain report? Thank you!
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