Who's winning the blame game over the shutdown? Here's what a new AP-NORC poll shows

The survey, conducted as the shutdown stretched into its third week, comes as leaders warn it could soon become the longest in history. Democrats are demanding an extension of tax credits that have helped millions of people afford health insurance since the coronavirus pandemic, while Republicans have refused to negotiate until Congress passes a funding bill to reopen the government.

The standoff has become a messaging battle, with each party betting the public will blame the other. The stakes are especially high for Democrats, now out of power and searching for a unifying fight to rally around ahead of pivotal 2026 midterm elections.

Slightly more of the public’s frustration appears to be aimed at the party in power. The poll finds that about half of Americans say Trump has “a great deal” of responsibility for the shutdown, the very highest amount of responsibility offered in the poll. That’s roughly the same share who fault Republicans in Congress, but higher than the 40% who say the same of Democrats.

Sophia Cole, a 38-year-old Republican mother from St. Louis, placed equal blame for the shutdown on Trump and Congress. Cole, who described herself as a Trump supporter, said both sides “should be able to come together” on a compromise but believes it is ultimately the Republican president’s responsibility to broker a deal.

“We’re dependent on him to get the House and everyone to vote the way that he needs them to vote,” Cole said.

Democrats and independents more likely to call the shutdown a ‘major issue’

The effects of the shutdown are beginning to be felt across the country. Flights have been delayed, and hundreds of thousands of federal employees who are furloughed or working without pay are starting to miss paychecks.

The poll finds that 54% of U.S. adults call the shutdown a “major issue,” with just 11% saying it is “not a problem at all.” Democrats are most likely, at 69%, to see it as a major problem, but 59% of independents and 37% of Republicans feel the same way.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said this week the country is “barreling toward one of the longest shutdowns in American history." The last shutdown, during Trump’s first term, went to for a record 35 days and drew similar public sentiment, with Democrats more likely than Republicans to see it as a major problem.

The White House has warned the impact of the shutdown could be worse this time. While roughly 2 million service members were paid on time this week, the administration has used the federal workforce as leverage, and last weekend it began following through on threats to lay off federal workers. But on Wednesday, a federal judge in California temporarily blocked the firings, saying they appeared to be politically motivated and were being carried out without much thought.

“Things are just going to keep getting worse for federal workers,” said Angie Santiago, a 60-year-old Democrat from Miami. “If people like me are struggling, I can’t imagine what federal workers are going through.”

Santiago, who is on disability while her husband works, said she fears the shutdown will worsen economic hardship across the country. Santiago said during a phone interview that she began regularly going to food banks about a year ago.

“I’m calling you from a food line,” she said. “You’re going to see more of these lines popping up. It’s going to get bad.”

More favor than oppose extending health care subsidies

At the center of the shutdown is a stalemate over federal tax credits for people who buy health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace. Democrats want the credits extended, while Republicans say they will discuss the issue only once the government reopens.

The poll shows that roughly 4 in 10 U.S. adults support extending the tax credits, while about 1 in 10 oppose it outright. A large share, 42%, have no opinion, suggesting many Americans are not closely following the core dispute driving the shutdown.

Jason Beck, a Republican who is a self-employed insurance agent in Utah, uses the Affordable Care Act marketplace for his own insurance and supports extending the tax credits.

“I know a lot of the shutdown is over health insurance, and I'd rather just keep it the same way it is now," Beck said of the subsidies.

Democrats say that keeping health insurance prices the same is central to their fight and that prices will skyrocket if Congress doesn’t do anything. But even Beck, who is on the Democrats' side with the subsidies, still places equal blame for the shutdown on Democrats, Republicans and Trump.

“Trump’s blaming the Democrats, and the Democrats are blaming the Republicans,” Beck said. “We’re stuck because there’s no middle ground anymore.”

Neither party sees a substantial bump in favorability

Both parties have framed the shutdown as a prelude to the 2026 midterms, with Democrats aiming to flip the House. So far, however, it doesn't appear to have meaningfully shifted opinions about either party.

About 3 in 10 U.S. adults have a “somewhat” or “very” favorable view of the Democratic Party, in line with an AP-NORC poll from September. Four in 10 have a “somewhat” or “very” favorable view of the Republican Party, similar to last month.

Confidence in Congress, meanwhile, remains extremely low. Only about 4% of Americans say they have “a great deal” of confidence in the way Congress is being run, while 43% have “only some” confidence and about half have “hardly any” confidence.

But the poll suggests that health care could be a helpful issue for Democrats down the road. The poll found that 38% of Americans trust Democrats to do a better job handling health care, while only 25% trust Republicans more. About 1 in 10 trust both equally, and 25% trust neither.

Rob Redding, a 49-year-old independent voter from New York, supports extending ACA subsidies and credits Democrats for defending them.

Redding said Democrats holding the line on the ACA subsidies is probably one of the most valiant and gutsy things he's ever seen them do.

“And,” Redding said, "I think that it's the right call.”

The AP-NORC poll of 1,289 adults was conducted Oct. 9-13, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Follow the AP's coverage of the federal government shutdown at https://apnews.com/hub/government-shutdown.