Trump should capitalize on the opportunity to negotiate a meaningful nuclear deal with Iran

But more recently, a parade of authoritative voices have asserted that the damage was indeed significant. These include Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency; David Albright, an independent nuclear weapons expert who has worked with the IAEA; and Iran’s own foreign minister, who late last week said the country’s nuclear program had sustained “significant and serious” damage.

Gathering and interpreting intelligence is always a slow and complicated process, akin to discerning the elephant’s size by touching one patch of its hide. Many touches will be needed before the true scope of the damage is accurately understood.

But that debate should not distract from a more important truth. Whatever the actual damage turns out to be, many experts believe that Iran almost certainly still retains the knowhow and raw materials to someday build a bomb — whether it is months or years from now. The world should be united in opposing that dangerous scenario. The question is how.

Hawkish Israeli and American opponents of the Iranian regime seem to believe that toppling that regime is the only way to end its nuclear ambitions for good. But despite its military power, the United States could not possibly ensure that overthrowing Tehran’s theocracy would lead to a peaceful Iran. Violent, destabilizing chaos or an even more hawkish regime seem equally, if not more likely, scenarios.

The best answer, then, is diplomacy. Focused, clear-eyed, determined diplomacy. And that diplomacy could begin soon if Iranian and US negotiators return to the bargaining table in the coming weeks, as Trump officials have predicted. Iranian officials have yet to confirm those talks.

As president, Trump, for all his talk of loving the art of the deal, has shown little appetite or skill at the art form. But if he truly wants to be known as a peacemaker — and not someone who simply brokers short-term cease-fires — this is his opportunity.

The administration has already made clear that it thinks a long-term denuclearization pact should include these elements: an end to Iran’s uranium enrichment activities; restrictions on its ballistic missile production; and an end to its financing of terrorist proxies, namely Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. In exchange, sanctions that have throttled Iran’s economy would be lifted, and Western investment in the country could resume.

Tehran desperately wants sanctions lifted or at least eased. But it has drawn a red line regarding enrichment, which it maintains is necessary for nonmilitary purposes like fueling nuclear power plants. This is not a credible position, however, because the Iranians were clearly enriching uranium far beyond what was needed for civilian purposes. Convincing the regime’s negotiators to yield on this point has been and will continue to be difficult.

What matters is that the administration resume those negotiations, and soon. Many experts and Trump critics argue that Iran, rather than being chastened by the recent attacks, may now hasten to build a bomb to ensure that Israel and the United States refrain from trying to obliterate the regime.

A first step to Iran’s restarting of its weapons program would be for it to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which authorizes the IAEA to inspect its nuclear facilities. The Iranian Parliament has passed a resolution along these lines, though the country’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has yet to implement it.

But it is also possible that the regime, for all its defensive bluster, feels its back is to the wall and would be open to new talks. Israeli military action over the past year has decimated Iran’s two main proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, rendering Tehran a far less potent threat to the region. The Israel Defense Forces’ astonishingly effective assassinations of top Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists have also surely shaken the mullahs’ confidence.

By design or sheer blind luck, then, Trump may have a real window of opportunity to force Iran’s hand. He should not squander it by trying to maintain that no deal is needed because Iran’s nuclear program is completely gone. In the past, he has expressed both a desire for a denuclearization deal and disparaged the value of such a deal. His advisers must make sure that he does not confuse political rhetoric with reality.

The terrible irony of all this is that Trump now finds himself in the position of negotiating a deal that might wind up looking suspiciously like the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the 2015 Obama-era pact that Trump withdrew from in 2018. That deal restricted Iran’s enrichment program, established an enhanced program of international inspections, and established tough sanctions for noncompliance.

Trump derided JCPOA as weak in part because most of its provisions were to sunset in 10 to 15 years. But after Trump withdrew from the pact, Iran accelerated its enrichment program, bringing it closer to a bomb. Trump would do well if he can reach a deal that is stronger and longer lasting than the JCPOA. But let’s not kid ourselves: If he simply attains something akin to JCPOA II, that would be a good thing for world peace.

If talks with Iran resume, there will inevitably be much noise from hawks and doves, Republicans and Democrats, about the utility of diplomacy. But like the debate over damage assessments, that talk shouldn’t be a distraction from the real goal: keeping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon now, in a few years, and forever.

The hard part has just begun. For better or worse, Donald Trump is the man who must make a deal happen. Will he have the focus and stamina to reach a real, meaningful agreement? History would suggest no. But we should all be hoping that he can.