States are redistricting to help one party but sometimes the move can backfire

“Trying to win more seats comes with a risk, because in order to win more seats, they have to draw districts more competitively,” said University of Texas at Dallas political science professor Thomas L. Brunell, who helped coin the term dummymander.

Republicans could try redistricting Nebraska

U.S. House districts are typically redrawn once a decade, immediately after a census, but some states allow it to happen more frequently. And the U.S. Supreme Court has said there is no federal curb on political gerrymandering, in which districts are intentionally drawn to favor one party.

Nebraska is among a number of states being targeted for mid-decade redrawing of congressional district lines, with the head of the National Republican Redistricting Trust last week naming Nebraska among its top candidates for change. Republican Gov. Jim Pillen said he supports the idea.

The focus would be the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District, a “blue dot” with Nebraska’s highest concentration of Democratic voters in a state otherwise dominated by Republicans.

Republicans hold all three of Nebraska’s U.S. House seats, including the 2nd District, but the Omaha seat is considered vulnerable. Incumbent Rep. Don Bacon eked out wins in the last two elections and won't seek reelection in 2026, bolstering Democratic hopes.

Gerrymandering in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats by a 2-1 ratio would seem simple, but state Sen. John Cavanaugh said it's not.

Cavanaugh, a Democrat who worked on Nebraska’s last redistricting effort following the 2020 U.S. Census and is now seeking the 2nd District seat, said Nebraska’s congressional districts already heavily favor Republicans following decades of GOP-led redistricting efforts.

“They’ve gone to great lengths to make the 2nd District less competitive,” Cavanaugh said.

Redistricting and the 2026 midterm elections

This summer, Trump urged Republican-led Texas to reshape districts so the GOP could win more seats in next year’s elections, jump-starting an offseason redistricting battle. The Republican Party typically loses congressional seats in midterm elections and the president is trying to buck that trend. Democrats need to gain just three seats to take control of the House.

In August, Texas lawmakers redrew the state’s congressional districts to give Republicans a shot at winning five more seats. Democratic-led California responded with a redistricting plan intended to help Democrats win more seats, though it still needs voter approval. Leaders in other Democratic-leaning states, such as Maryland, New York and Illinois, have said they’re considering their own mid-decade redistricting plans.

Last month, Republican-led Missouri adopted revised districts aimed at helping the GOP win another seat. North Carolina Republican legislative leaders also have announced plans to vote next week on redrawing the state’s House district map.

Redistricting remains under consideration in several other states, including Indiana and Kansas, where Republican lawmakers are gathering petition signatures from colleagues in an effort to call a special session for congressional redistricting.

The effort could backfire

Some Republicans remain hesitant, partially because of concerns that mid-decade redistricting could backfire. To make Democratic-leaning districts more favorable to Republicans, map drawers would have to shift some Democratic areas into districts currently held by Republicans, making them more vulnerable.

In South Carolina, Republican leaders worry that redrawing its seven U.S. House districts could be dangerous in a state where the GOP hovers at roughly 55% in competitive elections. Republicans usually hold six of seven seats but lost one for a term in 2018.

Kansas had already attempted to make the state’s four districts an all-GOP congressional delegation when it redrew the lines in 2022 to weaken the Democratic stronghold on the Kansas City-area. But Democratic incumbent Rep. Sharice Davids still won easily in 2022 and 2024.

Trump’s push to redraw the maps comes as his administration’s policies face skepticism among many voters, according to polling by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Moon Duchin, a computer and data science professor at the University of Chicago and redistricting expert, said creating reliably partisan congressional maps in a large state like Texas is easier because the state has 38 districts, offering plenty of options to tinker.

It's tougher in states like Nebraska or Kansas, she said.

“You have fewer lines; you’re not going to be able to put them as far out of reach without creating opportunities elsewhere," Duchin said. "And so, yes, you have to do it really carefully because it can backfire.”

Even in Texas, Republicans saw the effects of dummymandering after they aggressively redrew political lines in the 2010s that helped pad the GOP’s House majority. That lasted until 2018, when a backlash against Trump in his first term led Democrats to flip two seats that Republicans had thought safe.

“That’s the thing about gerrymandering — people are still going to vote, and you have to make guesses about future voting behavior,” Duchin said.

Nebraska has other challenges

After initial reluctance, Republicans in states including Texas and Missouri came around to support redistricting.

That could happen in Nebraska, too, but some key Republican lawmakers remain opposed.

Republican state Sen. Merv Riepe said he's not inclined to support such a measure, leaving Republicans with too few votes to overcome a filibuster.

That's in line with Republicans' failure last year to pass a bill that would have made Nebraska the 49th state to award its Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis.

Currently, only Nebraska and Maine allow presidential electoral votes to be split by congressional district. Nebraska's 2nd District's vote has gone to Democrats three times in the last two decades — to Barack Obama in 2008, Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024.

Associated Press writers David A. Lieb in Jefferson City, Missouri; John Hanna in Topeka, Kansas; Jeffrey Collins in Columbia, South Carolina; and Gary D. Robertson in Raleigh, North Carolina contributed.