The high cost of living is causing families to have fewer children, leading to enrollment dips in the San Mateo-Foster City Elementary School District, according to a recent report projecting student population trends over the coming years.
In the next five years, the school district is projected to lose about 282 students, a majority of which will come between transitional kindergarten and fifth grade, said a report from demographer Tom Williams.
Williams, who has been projecting enrollment for the school district since 2002, linked the shrinking student population to housing costs and declining birth rates. He framed the development as a regional issue which recently started to take hold in the district, in the report slated to go before the school board Thursday, Jan. 30.
“Soaring housing costs (including rents) already had led to failing kindergarten and birth counts over the last several years in most San Mateo County districts and these trends have now started in the [San Mateo-Foster City Elementary School District] as well,” he said in the report.
Recognizing the development, board President Noelia Corzo said concerns around the district’s enrollment issues are less significant than neighboring school systems where campuses are closing due to fewer students.
“While there is a slight decline, we are still in a really good spot,” she said.
The larger issue for Corzo is the cost of living, which she said is a source of constant hardship for many district families.
“There is definitely a crisis,” said Corzo.
The matter hits home for Corzo, who said her family was forced to move due to affordability challenges. She was encouraged to share her connection to the problem facing so many, because often others are not offered the same opportunity.
“The families that are struggling the most won’t be waving a red flag and asking for help,” she said, noting many district families are working multiple jobs to make ends meet, yielding little time to publicly discuss their struggle.
And while the report links the high cost of living to declining birth rates, which will lead to enrollment drops down the road, many families with students already enrolled in local schools are regularly uprooted due to affordability challenges.
The district’s current 11,562 students will drop down to 11,280 by 2024, according to the report. As it stands, the district has lost students each year since when enrollment reached 11,977 students in 2015 — its peak since at least 2007.
Projecting ahead, the first couple years of enrollment declines will be seen in the middle grades, before the drops shift to the elementary and transitional kindergarten grades, said the report.
Fleshing out the trends, the report showed enrollment trends dropping among students living in most housing types ranging from affordable apartments to single-family homes. Only intermediately-priced and upscale apartments generated enrollment increases and those rates were marginal.
An outlier identified by Williams was Sunnybrae Elementary School, where enrollment is expected to increase due to an uptick in home building nearby. He projected the school’s student population to show growth through 2024. Of the 2,800 new homes forecast for construction in the district through the next five years, 1,420 are projected near the Sunnybrae campus, said the report. The report also projected 340 new homes will be built near George Hall Elementary School.
“With the significant amount of new housing expected there, including [below-market-rate] units, the Sunnybrae student total instead should have growth through 2024 that could create a capacity issue,” said the report.
But he otherwise expressed uncertainty over which elementary schools in the district will take the biggest enrollment hit.
“We do not know which elementary areas will have the largest kindergarten declines over the next five years,” said the report.
Foster City is expected to see enrollment declines as well, according to the report which showed 142 fewer students enrolling from 2019 to 2022. Yet despite the drop, with a fourth school slated to soon open, each campus is projected to average more than 500 students as Foster City is projected to generate more than 2,000 students over the coming years.
For his part, Williams suggested the trends are consistent with those that have been taking hold along the Peninsula over recent years.
“There have been declining kindergarten and birth totals in most other San Mateo County districts in recent years and the [San Mateo-Foster City Elementary School District] is no longer an exception to that trend,” said the report.
Knowing that the source of the issue is affordability, Corzo said she would like to lead an effort ramping up programs supporting district families grappling with the cost of living.
“I will advocate for families that are struggling to stay in our district and really needing more support,” she said. “I’m hoping it can be more visible for the larger community so we can all support equity and diversity in our schools.”
The district Board of Trustees meets 7 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 30, in the district office, 1170 Chess Drive, Foster City.
(650) 344-5200 ext. 105
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Dirk van Ulden said:
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(3) comments
Please remember the total kids when FC school was built increased as the 5th grade was sent to the Polynesia old Foster City School...The private school parents enrolled the kids in FC school thusly displacing the students in the 5th grade..Demographers cannot predict these events happening Remember SM closed 5 schools finally building us FC school..in the future they needed all those schools for the days coming of more enrollment It will be interesting to see how the new school affects the student population in Foster City..and how the parents decisions affect the outcome.of where their kids are enrolled. AS aparent of one of the 5th graders who worked hard to get this FC school built all these deciions left me a bit resentful still am SM had all these 23? schools and FC needed FCSchool already too small when it was first opened in 1985.
What is interesting is school officials seem to think this downtrend is somehow a bad thing and that it must be corrected. Seems rather natural and a good sign that people are considering their finances before having children. Is that not what we want to encourage. Personal responsibility. School districts see it as a cash flow stream that should only go up when history has taught us for decades that enrollment is more of a natural and cyclical pattern.
Schools closing, and they want more money in school bonds???
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