Boots on the ground

My senior thesis paper explored the correlation between money and winning in federal open seats versus primary turnout. What we have in 2022 is a rare open seat election. My research looked at every federal open seat race and primary turnout from 2000 all the way back to the ’60s. The data was not easy to get as older primary data is not easily searchable. I spent innumerous hours finding and sorting data by hand in the Library of Congress reading room. More modern data is easily available in The Almanac of American Politics, one of the best publications for any political wonk’s bookshelf.

What I found, 20 years ago, was that in an open congressional race money really matters if there is a massive disparity. Yet, it was only corelated to winning in less than 60% of cases. However, raw primary turnout matters far more. Whoever turns out more people in a primary has a very high correlation with winning. This could also be a partisan predictor.

A greater focus on the proverbial “ground game” of any candidate in the primary season would be a better predictor of future success. But it would also provide readers useful information and guideposts to help voters determine who they might want to consider in the election. Money matters; but, boots on the ground matters far more.

Evan Adams

Foster City