The final stretch

In the meantime, here’s one best guess about how things could go in the high-profile races. Although, as Chronicle legend Bruce Jenkins puts it, I could be Dead Wrong in Public.

15th Congressional District (replacing Jackie Speier): All expectations are that Assemblymember Kevin Mullin will be the top vote-getter and be in the Nov. 8 General Election. He has widely proclaimed his endorsement by Speier and, after a sluggish start, roared to the lead in fundraising, topping $800,000. Supervisor David Canepa surged to an early lead in fundraising and in getting his name in front of voters, and he has been everywhere, talking to everyone. He has struggled to keep the pace in money, although, he still raised more than $670,000, but he has kept up a relentless pace both in campaigning and at official public events. His fast start is likely to carry him into November, however, it could be his campaign has lost some of its early momentum. There is a growing possibility that Burlingame Councilmember Emily Beach might squeak past Canepa. She has lagged in money — she raised more than $540,000 and a major independent expenditure weighed in late for her — but the general consensus is that she has run an effective campaign that has made good use of social media. And there are those who think the seat should continue to be held by a woman, and those who are alarmed at the potential overturn of Roe v. Wade by the U.S. Supreme Court.

21st Assembly District (replacing Mullin): The fight between San Mateo Councilmember Diane Papan and Redwood City Councilmember Giselle Hale has been the most controversial in decades. Papan should be the top vote-getter, but her vote totals may be hurt by the more than $1 million in mail pieces sent out by special interests, many of them dramatically anti-Hale. Papan also launched direct attacks on Hale, and Hale has issued her own attacks on Papan. The anti-Hale strategy seeks to prevent her from making it to November. One of the special interest committees is spending $25,000 to boost perennial also-ran Republican Mark Gilham into November. Hale has held her own — she raised more than $500,000 to Papan’s $360,000 — and she still is expected to make it into November. A second Papan-Hale go-round is being greeted like six more months of winter.

Board of Supervisors, District 2 (replacing Carole Groom): The only question here is whether Belmont Councilmember Charles Stone will get more than 50% of the vote and avoid a Nov. 8 runoff against San Mateo-Foster City Schools Trustee Noelia Corzo. Stone has raised nearly 10 times more money than Corzo, who ran an earnest campaign but never was in a position to compete aggressively against Stone’s advantages in money, endorsements, long-standing connections and the fact that he has been running for this seat since 2019.

Board of Supervisors, District 3 (replacing Don Horsley): Menlo Park Councilmember Ray Mueller and San Carlos Councilmember Laura Parmer-Lohan began this race as the two front-runners, and it appears they will finish the primary that way and face each other in a November runoff. The wild card here is the more conservative Virginia Chang Kiraly, who sits on the boards of the Menlo Fire District and the county Harbor District. She has surged late in the campaign, but the consensus is that it is too little, too late.

Sheriff: In Capt. Christina Corpus’ effort to oust incumbent Sheriff Carlos Bolanos, she has organized a model grassroots campaign and touched voters in person, by phone, by text and by social media. Bolanos is the classic establishment candidate. He has raised $340,000 and is benefiting from another $100,000 being spent independently by wealthy executives in Woodside and Portola Valley. He has emphasized his 40 years in law enforcement and the whisper campaign against Corpus has been that she lacks the experience to manage an 800-person Sheriff’s Office with a broad portfolio. None of that may make any difference. The past decade has seen unprecedented scrutiny and criticism of law enforcement. That antipathy may show up on Tuesday in a desire to make change for its own sake. Still, it seems likely Bolanos will be reelected, but this race is closer than a lot of people thought it would be.

Mark Simon is a veteran journalist, whose career included 15 years as an executive at SamTrans and Caltrain. He can be reached at marksimon@smdailyjournal.com.