Election wrap

None of which provides much grist for November projections, or a declaration of a big win for progressives, or a swing toward moderates, as is being trumpeted in San Francisco.

What is most likely is that the Nov. 5 election — eight months away — will be a whole different universe of voters. It is probably safe to assume that the prospect of a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as unappetizing as it might seem in March, will take on more urgency by November. Around here, that would mean more younger voters, more minority voters and a Democrat-to-Republican ratio more reflective of the county registration.

DISTRICT 4: In the five-candidate race to replace Warren Slocum on the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors, the insider criticism of East Palo Alto Councilmember Lisa Gauthier is that her run was more of a saunter. She fell tantalizingly short of the simple majority needed to avoid a runoff. Had she worked harder at raising money and campaigned as aggressively as her two leading opponents — Antonio Lopez and Maggie Cornejo — Gauthier could have avoided a second election. It is an astonishing lapse. Gauthier’s 25-point lead in the primary seems fragile. … Lopez’s second-place finish, on the other hand, hints of an even stronger November run. He is an energized, well-funded newcomer around whom progressives can coalesce — he is the only one on the county-level ballot in November. In the primary, there were three Latinos running; now, he is the only one, and that could be a key element of the November election. Like the turnout countywide, voting in District 4 was dominated by older, white voters. Latinos are nearly 24% of the district registration, but turnout in that community is running at about 19%.

THE OTHER SUPE RACE: No one is surprised that former U.S. Rep. Jackie Speier easily won the race to replace Dave Pine in the District 1 board seat. As of yesterday’s tallies, Speier got 67.7% of the vote. Her challenger, Millbrae Councilmember Ann Schneider, proved that anyone can get 30% of the vote, even with a minimalist campaign.

THE DEMOCRATS: In the much-ballyhooed race for seats on the county Democratic Central Committee, neither progressives nor moderates won dominant control of the official party machinery. Indeed, after all the money that was spent on slates and all the contorted posturing, most of the winners were listed on the ballot as incumbents or had been elected before to another office that voters could recognize. Among the prominent winners: former state Sen. Jerry Hill, Supervisor Noelia Corzo, and councilmembers Pranita Venkatesh and Adam Rak of San Carlos, James Coleman of South San Francisco and Lissette Espinoza-Garnica of Redwood City. … Of the 23 seats up for grabs, 13 were won by incumbents. … One incumbent who lost was legislative aide and former party chair Nicole Fernandez, running hard for San Mateo City Council against incumbent Amourence Lee. Losing a central committee race is not the end of the world, but it does give comfort to the opposition. … Similarly, Redwood City Councilmember Chris Sturken showed poorly in his central committee race.

CAN’T BUY ME LOVE: In the 16th Congressional District race to replace U.S. Rep. Anna Eshoo, it will be a while before we can fully calculate how much money unknown Democrat Peter Dixon spent in the primary on each of his less-than-10,000 votes. His surge of TV ads and mail may have raised his profile from zero, but it did little more than that, buying him a fifth-place finish in an 11-candidate field. … The money Dixon spent, and spent lavishly on him by, among others, Amazon boss Jeff Bezos, is likely to flow now to former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, who finished on top of the field. The tech industry is deeply worried about impending Congressional action on AI and regulating social media. Liccardo clearly is eager to be the “congressman from Silicon Valley.” … Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian’s second-place finish was mirrored by his running second in the San Mateo County portion of the district.

Note to readers: This column was changed to correct a mistake. Chris Sturken was not appointed, but won election.

Mark Simon is a veteran journalist, whose career included 15 years as an executive at SamTrans and Caltrain. He can be reached at marksimon@smdailyjournal.com.