Mexico's new president promises to resume fight against climate change

Specifics are still scant, but her speech marks a sharp departure from the energy policy of former President López Obrador, a fierce defender of fossil fuels who, among other things, spent more than $20 billion to build a new oil refinery and stopped the auctions that had allowed developers to build solar and wind farms in the country.

The president said in the coming days she will unveil an "ambitious energy transition program" aimed at "the reduction of greenhouse gases that cause climate change."

Yet Sheinbaum has also promised to strengthen the nation's Federal Electricity Commission, which owns older plants that mainly burn fossil fuels, and state-owned oil company Pemex.

Even without specifics, experts and environmentalists said the change in rhetoric was notable.

"The terms 'sustainability' or 'renewable energy' really never appeared," in López Obrador's policies, said Rosanety Barrios, who worked for more than a decade at the Mexican Energy Regulatory Commission. "He didn't use the term in any speech, in any document. And she has been using it all the time."

During her campaign, Sheinbaum repeatedly promised to promote renewable energy to meet an increasing demand for electricity, due in part to rising temperatures from climate change. In a speech to Congress, also on Tuesday, with López Obrador sitting a few steps from her, the promises seemed more tangible.

The goal of reaching 45% clean electricity by 2030 is well above the 24% it represented last year, according to the Ministry of Energy. If achieved, Mexico would be back on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, which seeks to keep the global average temperature to no more than two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

The energy policy promoted by López Obrador led Climate Action Tracker, an organization which evaluates the actions countries take to comply with the Paris Agreement, to downgrade Mexico's rating to "critically insufficient."

In her speech to Congress, the president also announced what would be the country's first ever limit on oil production – 1.8 million barrels per day. All crude oil in Mexico is produced by Pemex, and that amount is approximately what the company produced in 2023 on an average day.

It is far less than the 2.6 million barrels per day López Obrador promised at the beginning of his term.

Sheinbaum recalled that more than a decade ago, a 2013 energy reform promoted by then President Enrique Peña Nieto proposed production of 3 million barrels per day. "That is environmentally impossible," she said. "It is better to promote efficiency and renewable sources."

At the same time, however, Sheinbaum has vowed to "strengthen Pemex" and she never criticized the building of the new Dos Bocas refinery, paying several visits to it with López Obrador.

Experts said Mexico would not be able to increase oil production using traditional methods, because its fields are getting tapped out.

"Mexico has ten years of oil left at its current rate of production, which is modest. Mexico is almost out of oil," said Adrian Fernandez, who holds a PhD in environmental science from Imperial College London and directs the Mexico Climate Initiative, a think tank.

But Fernández nevertheless praised Sheinbaum's words "because it means she is not going to try to increase oil production."

Mexico would have to invest significant money either in hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, or deepwater exploration to increase production beyond current levels, he said. Up until now, the country has rejected both of these.

Fernández also said Sheinbaum's speech is "totally consistent with her experience and knowledge." The president has a PhD in energy engineering and degrees in physics, and was part of the United Nations panel of experts on climate change that won the Nobel Prize in 2007.

This week, Sheinbaum saw firsthand the havoc that climate change is wreaking in Mexico. On Wednesday, on her first trip as the country's leader, she visited Acapulco, in the southern state of Guerrero, to assess the damage caused by Hurricane John, which struck the coast first as a hurricane and then again as a tropical storm last week.

The storm left a trail of devastation while the city was still recovering from last year's Hurricane Otis. The strengh of both hurricanes was turbocharged by rising ocean temperatures due to global warming.

But the big question is whether the new president will be able to achieve her goals within Mexico's current legal framework. Before leaving office, López Obrador pushed through a constitutional reform that strongly favors the Federal Electricity Commission.

On one hand, Sheinbaum has supported that legal change and promised the state will keep control of 54% of electricity generation. On the other, she has said she will once again encourage private investment in renewable energy, something the prior government discouraged with rules that favored the state-owned CFE that are still in force.

"From my point of view, the biggest problem Claudia has is legal uncertainty," Barrios said.