WASHINGTON (AP) — Montana voters will select nominees in Tuesday’s state primary to replace departing Republican incumbents in the U.S. Senate and House, but one major contender won’t be on the ballot. Meanwhile, several state legislative primaries will highlight divisions within Montana’s dominant Republican Party.
Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers of Congress. Montana has not been at the top of the list of seats Democrats hope to flip to regain control of either body, but the retirements do creak open the door for a candidate to possibly take advantage of the state’s independent streak.
Republican U.S. Sen. Steve Daines is not seeking a third term. He has endorsed former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme to replace him. Daines’ late withdrawal from the race in March and the launch of Alme’s candidacy, both timed to occur just before the filing deadline, appeared to be carefully choreographed. President Donald Trump seemed to confirm as much in his endorsement of Alme.
“In fact, if Kurt didn’t have the highest level of aptitude and talent, Steve would have remained exactly where he is….” Trump said in a social media post.
Alme also has endorsements from the state’s other top Republicans, U.S. Sen. Tim Sheehy and Gov. Greg Gianforte. He faces Republicans Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child for the nomination.
The Democratic field includes former state Rep. Reilly Neill, whose fundraising is five times the combined haul of her four primary rivals.
The winners of both primaries will face former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, who is running as an independent. As of mid-May, Bodnar had outraised the entire field of candidates, regardless of party. Bodnar is one of a handful of independent candidates who have opted to bypass the party primary process and could complicate the general election for some Republican incumbents.
In the 1st Congressional District, Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke is not seeking a fourth full term, citing health concerns. He, Trump, Sheehy and Gianforte have endorsed talk radio host and former Zinke congressional staffer Aaron Flint over Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen, former state Sen. Al Olszewski and former high school government teacher Ray Curtis. The Democratic field includes former gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse and union organizer Sam Forstag.
In the state Legislature, several primaries expose an ongoing rift within the ranks of Montana Republicans.
At the start of the 2025 legislative session, nine Republican state senators bucked the party on a variety of key floor measures, essentially handing control of the chamber to Democrats.
State Sen. Shelley Vance of District 34 is the only one of the maverick lawmakers, dubbed the “Nasty Nine” by the Montana GOP, up for reelection in 2026. Two others, state Sens. Jason Ellsworth and Bruce Gillespie, opted instead to run for the state House in Districts 34 and 18, respectively. The other six are either term-limited, retiring or not up this cycle.
In response to the revolt within the Republican caucus, the Montana Republican Party released a list of state legislative candidates it supports, including some who are challenging Republican incumbents in the state House. But some of the state party’s picks put the committee at odds with Gianforte, who has released a series of social media videos appearing with four state House incumbents targeted by the party.
The governor offered words of support for state House Speaker Brandon Ler and state Reps. Valerie Moore and Ken Walsh, who are all running for reelection, and for state Rep. Eric Albus, who is running in state Senate District 14. Gianforte does not explicitly endorse the lawmakers in the videos, but he called one a “great partner” and said he was “proud of the work” he’d done with another.
Half of the state’s 50 state Senate seats and all 100 state House seats are up for election in 2026.
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:
When do polls close?
Polls close at 8 p.m. MT, which is 10 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, Public Service Commission, state Senate and state House.
Who gets to vote?
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Any eligible voter may participate in any party’s primary.
How many voters are there?
As of May 25, there were about 791,000 registered voters in Montana. Voters do not register by party.
How many people actually vote?
About 190,000 Republican primary votes and about 108,000 Democratic primary votes were cast in the 2024 U.S. Senate primaries.
How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?
About 68% of the 2024 primary vote was cast before primary day.
As of Friday, about 166,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.
When are early and absentee votes released?
Counties vary in how they release votes. In previous elections, results from absentee voting mostly were released along with in-person Election Day voting throughout the night. About two-thirds of Montana’s 56 counties tend to release all or almost all of their mail and in-person early voting results in the first vote update of the night, often along with results from in-person Election Day voting. About half the counties tend to release all or almost all their in-person Election Day results in the first vote report.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the 2024 U.S. Senate primary, the AP first reported results at 10:26 p.m. ET, or 26 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 4:06 a.m. ET with about 84% of total votes counted.
When will the AP declare a winner?
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
How do recounts work?
Montana requires an automatic recount only in the event of a tie vote. A candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total vote, but the state will only pay for it if the margin is 0.25% or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 154 days until the 2026 midterm elections.
Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.
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