With cooler winter months approaching, San Mateo County health officials suggested COVID-19 cases could begin to increase but high vaccination rates could prevent a repeat of last year’s holiday spike, potentially leading the community to low infection rates similar to those experienced in June by the spring.
“We’re probably going to expect a winter surge again like any virus but fortunately compared to last winter our high vaccination rates should protect us,” Deputy Health Officer Dr. Curtis Chan said during a webinar Wednesday night. “Nobody knows what the crystal ball will show of viruses but we’re hopeful by next year we’ll be back to that low transmission stage a little earlier.”
Chan was largely addressing school parents when he made the comments during a webinar, titled COVID-19 Safe Schools and Vaccinations for Youth, hosted by the San Mateo County Office of Education. Dr. Anand Chabra, section chief of mass vaccination and medical director of Family Health; Dr. Frank Trinh, supervising physician of Communicable Disease Control; and county Superintendent Nancy Magee were also featured speakers during the webinar.
Reflecting on the nearly two years the county has been responding to the pandemic, Chan said the community has come a long way, noting children have now returned to in-person classes, most safety restrictions have been lifted and holiday preparations better mirror pre-pandemic traditions.
“Children are thriving as well too and that wasn’t always the case when school wasn’t in session earlier in the pandemic,” he said.
Chief of Health Louise Rogers wrote also in her Message From the Chief, published Tuesday, Oct. 26, that the county’s average daily case rate has dipped to 4.8 new cases per 100,000 residents or an average of 37 cases a day.
The figure has continued to fall for weeks and is a far cry from what was being experienced this time last October when a winter surge in cases began to hit the county, causing thousands of cases to occur among Peninsula residents and hundreds of deaths. The surge led to strict safety precautions and warnings to not travel for traditional family gatherings.
Meanwhile, hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine were just being realized with some of the first doses being distributed among medical first responders in December. Nearly a year later, just more than 72% of county residents are fully vaccinated and officials remain vigilant in increasing that rate to 80% overall and for each population subgroup.
“Overall we’re doing quite well in terms of COVID vaccinations in San Mateo County,” Chabra said.
Children vaccinations
Federal emergency approval of the Pfizer vaccine for children ages 5 and older is also anticipated to be granted next week, Chabra said, leading to another big jump in the county’s overall vaccination rate by late December, Chan added.
Children would then be welcomed to visit 21 pharmacies, any county-sponsored clinic, their pediatrician, and the San Mateo County Event Center for their first and second doses, which will be a third of the dose given to those ages 12 and older, Chabra said.
Magee said school campuses will also host regional vaccine clinics in November for any student who can make it to the site regardless of whether they’re enrolled in the school district. A school in the San Mateo-Foster City School District will host one on Nov. 15, followed by a clinic in Pacifica on Nov. 16, Jefferson Elementary School District on Nov. 17 and Redwood City School District on Nov. 18.
“Right now we’re really focused on obtaining the highest level of vaccination we can for our population from the 5-year-olds to all the way up,” Magee said, noting she will be putting out a weekly vaccination update every Thursday to inform families of open clinic spots and to answer any lingering questions.
Needed protections
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As vaccinations continue to trickle upward, bolstered by child vaccinations, Chan said the public should be better protected against the virus this winter as the more contagious delta variant remains the dominant strain in the region. The progress would also put the county on track to have indoor masking mandates lifted by the end of December, he said.
The county currently meets one of the three criteria set by regional health officers to permit indoor masking to end — low hospitalizations ranging between 19 and 21 patients, Rogers said. If infection rates also remain low for another week, the county will have been in the yellow moderate transmission risk tier monitored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, meeting another criteria.
The last benchmark would be for at least 80% of the county residents to become fully vaccinated or for eight weeks to pass after emergency federal approval for vaccines is granted for children ages 5 and older.
The eight weeks would give families about three weeks to further research the vaccines and consult with a doctor while accounting for another three weeks to receive both first and second doses and another two weeks wait time to reach full vaccination status.
But while children access vaccines, retaining some protections like masking in public would be necessary to protect vulnerable seniors and those with underlying conditions, he said.
“We understand the risk of disease for children may not be very high but the overall impact on public health and families of children is significant,” Chan said. “In general, they may have mild illness but their great-grandfather or great-grandmother would die from it so we really want to protect the community as well as the children.”
Hopes for spring
By the spring, however, the nation should be taking a much more relaxed approach for addressing the virus that will likely include learning to live with the disease for years to come, Chan said. He also shared hopes for the current school year to end with fewer masked celebrations.
Magee noted that any lifted regional mask mandates would not apply to school masking requirements which are set by the California Department of Public Health.
Speaking to school vaccine mandates, Magee said the state will begin to roll out the requirement starting with high school students in January though districts can adopt earlier or stricter mandates. Younger students will likely be required to get vaccinated ahead of the 2022-23 school year, she said.
But regardless of mandates, Magee said administrators have been focused on getting young people vaccinated when possible, keeping the community informed and assisting families and educators with navigating the pandemic.
“Your kids have really gained incredible resiliency skills [and have] learned so much by navigating through tough times,” Magee said. “And I know it will pay off as we go.”
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