House Speaker Nancy Policy just visited the island of Taiwan, a democracy of 23 million people. Amidst controversy over her visit, who knows for sure what she may have said to the Taiwanese leaders in private. What she should have told them is that if they do not wish to be absorbed by a belligerent communist Chinese regime, they must prepare Taiwan and its people to fight and die on their own soil, like Ukraine’s, with a similarly speculative outcome. She also should have told them they cannot wait to either internally come to a consensus on their defense policy or garner U.S. and international support for their defense.
If she were speaking to U.S. and international business leaders, she would have to tell them that they must not wait to wean themselves from their dependence on Taiwanese produced semiconductors or any reliance on the Chinese market.
If Speaker Pelosi were addressing the American public and her colleagues in Congress, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who supported her visit, she would have to say that if the U.S. military is called upon to defend Taiwan against an invasion, we have to understand we will lose ships, planes and most importantly our sons and daughters in the fight, and with uncertain results. Further, she would need to say that we, and most of the rest of the world, will need to prepare for, and will, suffer from critical supply chain disruptions like we have never seen before and another round of inflation.
U.S. military and think tank leaders are calling for an asymmetrical defense of Taiwan. What that really means is they can’t go head-to-head with the Chinese on the sea and in the air, and the people of Taiwan have to prepare for guerrilla warfare on their soil, create a civilian defense force to supplement the military, and have the pre-positioned means to do so, with massive international support to keep them supplied with relevant arms, oil and food. The only means to provide that support is from the international community by sea and air, which would need to be protected from the Chinese forces.
Speaker Pelosi would also have to tell the United States and the world to prepare for a refugee crisis that would dwarf that of Ukraine. That crisis is compounded by no “land bridge” off the island. The United States would have to prepare and defend a “sea bridge” for the escaping Taiwanese.
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U.S. military leaders predict the Chinese will have the military capacity for a land invasion within five years. Sycophant Chinese military leaders have advised Chinese President Xi Jinping that it can be done at “an acceptable cost.” The United States is not yet militarily capable of defending against that, even if there was a will to do so. President Xi has been clear that absorption of Taiwan must be accomplished on his watch.
Unlike Ukraine, the United States and most of the rest of the world views Taiwan as a part of China, not a separate sovereign nation. But, as part of the reopening of relations with a Communist China, the United States committed to arming Taiwan to defend itself until such time as the Taiwanese themselves accept a peaceful reunification with China. The United States also adopted a policy of “strategic ambiguity” as to whether the United States would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan. No one knows whether the United States will play the defense chit.
Some may say, why would China invade Taiwan and risk the destruction of its world leading semiconductor capacity and suffer from what may be unprecedented international sanctions and potential isolation? One reason is that autocratic regimes, with no internal checks and balances, act with hubris and make devastating mistakes. Another reason is because “they can.” Finally, they may not believe U.S. and international support for Taiwan will hold.
Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan highlights the dilemma and complicated decisions faced by all parties. No decision is without risk of calamity, but the Taiwanese and the world community must get prepared for the worst.
Jim Hartnett is an attorney, consultant, former member of Naval Security Group, certificate holder from Harvard Kennedy School on programs in national and international security, and cybersecurity. He is the former general manager and CEO of the San Mateo County Transit District.
Thanks for your letter, Mr. Hartnett. When treasonous Biden took a knee and gave Afghanistan, along with aid and comfort, to the Taliban, it was a green light for any other country having designs on expanding their influence. They all know they can take Biden behind the woodshed - Russia already has and it remains to be seen whether China will. If China does, it won’t be a great surprise. Sadly, I predict we’ll be treated to more hot air and impotence from bumbling Biden and the mainstream media either apologizing for or ignoring Biden’s ineffectiveness in global affairs.
Besides, don’t we have more important things to work on? After all, we have a Supreme Court Justice (and many others) who can’t define what a “woman” is; we have a military more concerned about CRT garbage than military matters; we have so-called military leaders trying to kick out soldiers for refusing an experimental jab (I’m pretty sure these folks have more important things to worry about than wondering whether their brothers-in-arms have been jabbed).
Thank you for a definitive analysis of our policy optoins for Taiwan. The embarrassment of having a successful, prosperous western style government next door, must be enormously embarrassing for Chairman Xi and the Chinese autocracy. Taiwan makes chips for G5 networks that the Chinese couldn't hope to make in 10 years.
Taiwan would do well to develop a submarine force that could sink an amphibious Chinese navy and purchase a large number of anti-missile systems that Ukraine failed to stock pile ahead of time. The Chinese have no experience in amphibious warfare and the prospects of a protracted land war in Taiwan might give them second thoughts.
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(2) comments
Thanks for your letter, Mr. Hartnett. When treasonous Biden took a knee and gave Afghanistan, along with aid and comfort, to the Taliban, it was a green light for any other country having designs on expanding their influence. They all know they can take Biden behind the woodshed - Russia already has and it remains to be seen whether China will. If China does, it won’t be a great surprise. Sadly, I predict we’ll be treated to more hot air and impotence from bumbling Biden and the mainstream media either apologizing for or ignoring Biden’s ineffectiveness in global affairs.
Besides, don’t we have more important things to work on? After all, we have a Supreme Court Justice (and many others) who can’t define what a “woman” is; we have a military more concerned about CRT garbage than military matters; we have so-called military leaders trying to kick out soldiers for refusing an experimental jab (I’m pretty sure these folks have more important things to worry about than wondering whether their brothers-in-arms have been jabbed).
Thank you for a definitive analysis of our policy optoins for Taiwan. The embarrassment of having a successful, prosperous western style government next door, must be enormously embarrassing for Chairman Xi and the Chinese autocracy. Taiwan makes chips for G5 networks that the Chinese couldn't hope to make in 10 years.
Taiwan would do well to develop a submarine force that could sink an amphibious Chinese navy and purchase a large number of anti-missile systems that Ukraine failed to stock pile ahead of time. The Chinese have no experience in amphibious warfare and the prospects of a protracted land war in Taiwan might give them second thoughts.
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Keep it clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
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Be truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
PLEASE TURN OFF YOUR CAPS LOCK.
Anyone violating these rules will be issued a warning. After the warning, comment privileges can be revoked.