Trump's Ukraine peace plan ignites diplomatic flurry but major hurdles lie ahead

“I think we're getting very close to a deal,” President Donald Trump said during the annual White House turkey pardon on Tuesday.

A contentious peace plan

Based on talks between Washington and Moscow, the 28-point plan presented to Ukraine calls on it to cede its entire eastern Donbas region to Russia, which invaded its smaller neighbor in February 2022. The plan would put a 600,000-person limit on Ukraine’s military and bar Ukraine or any other new member from NATO. It also would rule out NATO troops in Ukraine and does not commit the U.S. or European nations to Ukraine's defense if Russia attacks again.

For its part, Russia would commit to no more attacks on Ukraine, facing sanctions if it violates that.

Ukraine and its European allies have said the plan rewards Russian aggression.

The Europeans and the Ukrainians offered counterproposals aimed at shifting the balance toward Ukraine, such as lifting the cap on Ukraine's military power, leaving open the question of future NATO membership and postponing discussions of territorial concessions until after a ceasefire.

“There cannot be limitation on Ukraine's armed forces that would leave the country vulnerable to future attack and thereby also undermining European security,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Sunday.

Meeting in Geneva

U.S. and Ukrainian officials met Sunday in Geneva, Switzerland, with both sides calling the talks constructive and promising to produce a revised peace plan. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Sunday that “diplomacy has been reinvigorated,” and Ukrainian officials said they hoped Zelenskyy would travel to the U.S within days to meet President Donald Trump.

U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll met Russian officials in Abu Dhabi Tuesday and Ukraine’s allies held a videoconference meeting. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the peace talks “are moving in a positive direction and indications today (are) that in large part the majority of the text, Volodymyr is indicating, can be accepted.”

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that Moscow had not received the amended peace plan.

Deadlines and differences

Allies of Ukraine who have pledged to underwrite and guarantee any ceasefire – the so-called Coalition of the Willing – were holding a video conference Tuesday, hosted by Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron.

About 20 countries in the coalition have agreed to join a post-ceasefire “reassurance force” for Ukraine. The plan foresees European allies training Ukrainian troops and providing sea and air support, but relies on U.S. military muscle as a security guarantee. Trump has not explicitly committed to providing that backup.

After the Geneva talks, Secretary of State Marco Rubio flew back to the U.S. from Geneva to debrief Trump, who has said the original proposal is “not my final offer” but has not commented on proposed changes.

War-weariness could aid peace efforts

The latest push for peace comes as Ukrainians are exhausted after almost four years of war, with the country's cities and energy infrastructure pummelled by Russian missiles and drones.

Both Russia and Ukraine have suffered hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded, and along the front line Russia is making slow gains and at huge human cost.

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said sanctions on Russian oil and gas were starting to bite, putting Moscow under pressure.

“They want us to believe they can continue forever. This is not true,” she said.

There are also domestic troubles for Zelenskyy, dealing with a corruption scandal in his administration – and for Trump, facing rifts within his MAGA movement.

Jim Townsend, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said the Russians likely perceive Trump as impatient and unfocused, and will deploy delay tactics to avoid concessions.

“This could just be a real mess. The Russians don’t feel any pressure. They think they’re going to win if they hold out long enough. The pressure’s all on Zelenskyy,” he said.

McNeil reported from Brussels.