SAN FRANCISCO — In a strategic shift, George W. Bush will begin advertising aggressively in California, the nation's most vote-rich state and one that polls have indicated is solid Al Gore territory.
GOP and Bush campaign leaders said they believe California is winnable. But some political analysts and even some Republicans suspect Bush is seeking to force Gore to spend money in the state.
Starting Tuesday or Wednesday, the Republican National Committee will spend about $1 million a week exclusively in the Los Angeles area, where nearly half the state's voters live, GOP and campaign officials said Saturday.
The ads will air on network television through the final month of the campaign, party officials said.
The spots are the same ones airing in battleground states, and will likely focus on education and prescription drug benefits. Campaign officials said they will air often enough so that the average viewer will see them 10 times a week -- a "saturation buy."
The Los Angeles commercials will come in addition to the roughly $600,000 a week the GOP is spending on ads throughout the state.
In addition, the state party is preparing to send 1 million advertisements by mail to GOP and swing voters in California in coming days, at a cost of $1 million.
"We plan to compete to win in California," said Gerry Parksy, Bush's state campaign chairman.
The Gore campaign and Democratic Party officials are convinced California is virtually a lock for Gore, and said they are delighted the GOP is spending money here.
Neither the Gore campaign nor the party has aired ads for Gore, and there are no plans to do so, a Gore aide at his Nashville, Tenn. headquarters said.
"We welcome the Bush campaign's decision to waste money here," said Peter Ragone, a spokesman for Gore's California campaign.
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"Maybe he believes he can win California with a handful of bumper stickers and some cheerleaders," Parsky countered.
The abrupt decision to pour resources into California followed a Friday conference call Friday between officials from Bush's Austin, Texas national campaign, the California campaign and the RNC.
Independent surveys show Bush trailing Gore by 9 to 13 percentage points in California, which has more electoral votes than any other state.
Parsky said he believed the margin was as little as 6 points, and said Bush has a strong chance of capturing the state.
But Gary Jacobson, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego, said he believed the advertising effort was a feint meant to force Gore to divert money to California.
"He's trying to make (Gore) campaign for a state he thinks he ought to have, that ought to be in his pocket," Jacobson said.
"I think California is still safe for Gore, (and) it's hard to take this as a serious attempt to win the state," he said.
But, he added, "It's not going to hurt the Bush ticket, and it may pick up a little support if it goes unanswered."
An RNC spokesman insisted the ad effort was not meant to force Gore's hand in California.
"Whether Al Gore chooses to take a state for granted or not is not really our concern," said party spokesman Terry Holt. "If he feels like he doesn't need to have a campaign in California, I think he does so at great risk."
A party official said the RNC's fund-raising successes had freed it to expand advertising to additional states. The RNC has raised more than $100 million over the last three months, the party said Friday. He said that will give the party the option of adding states to our list.<
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