Bucking the trend of cities in the Bay Area, San Mateo's young families are staying on the Peninsula and enrolling children in public school, according to a report released at a San Mateo-Foster City School District board meeting Thursday night.
"It's very unusual to see net gains in birth rates and net gains in moderate to expensive housing," said Tom Williams, principal of San Mateo-based Enrollment Projection Consultants.
Williams' report predicted the school district's enrollment of about 10,100 would rise by 106 in the next five years, and by 499 in the next 10 years.
Other Bay Area school districts tend to be stable or declining, but "this one was remarkably stable," he said.
School districts in California depend in part on enrollment numbers for state money, and the projections seemed to please most of the trustees at the meeting.
About 25 to 30 percent of students in the district's boundaries attend private schools, Williams said. His research showed about half of kindergarten to 12th-grade students in Southern California attend private schools, whereas in the Central Valley about 10 to 15 percent do.
Susan Silver, associate superintendent of administrative services, said she expected kindergarten enrollment growth this year because of the swell of interest in information nights and more parents calling the district.
"This seems to be a very stable picture with small growth everywhere," Williams said.
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