US retailers are about to see if Black Friday benefits from a holiday halo effect

This year's kickoff comes as consumer confidence in the U.S. economy fell this month in the aftermath of the federal government shutdown, weak hiring and stubborn inflation, according to a report The Conference Board issued Tuesday.

Many retail executives have reported customers becoming more discerning and increasingly focused on deals while at the same time remaining willing to splash out for important occasions like the start of the school year and the winter holidays, creating a halo effect.

“Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now, so the outlook is probably better than they are telling us,” Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said this week of shoppers' moods heading into Black Friday. "But business surveys also report consumers are being more sensitive to prices and selective in spending."

While planning for the holidays in the spring and summer, retail companies were wrestling with the volatility of President Donald Trump ’s wide-ranging tariffs on imported goods. Many accelerated shipments of some merchandise before the tariffs took effect or decided to absorb some of the import tax costs instead of raising prices for customers.

Market research firm Circana said that 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw a price increase of at least 5% compared with the first four months of the year.

Toys, baby products, housewares, and team sports equipment were among the hardest hit categories. For example, 83% of toys sold in September saw an increase of at least 5%, Circana said. Industry group The Toy Association says nearly 80% of the toys sold in the U.S. are made in China, a country the Trump administration hit with especially high tariffs at various points this year.

Still, analysts and mall executives cited solid momentum heading into Black Friday week. At the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, foot traffic in recent weeks surpassed the numbers from pre-pandemic 2019, said Jill Renslow, the mall's chief business development and marketing officer.

“We're seeing a very positive start to the holiday season," Renslow said. “The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”

The growth in online sales also has been robust so far. From Nov. 1 to Nov. 23, consumers spent $79.7 billion, according to web tracking and analysis platform Adobe Analytics. That represented a gain of 7.5% from a year earlier and was bigger than Adobe's 5.3% growth forecast for the season.

Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment methods, predicted a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24. That compares with a 4.1% increase last year.

“Clearly, there’s uncertainty,” Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer said. “Clearly, consumers feel on edge. But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season.”

According to Adobe Analytics, Thanksgiving Day was the best time to shop online to get the deepest discount on sporting goods. But Black Friday will be the best time to buy TVs, toys and appliances online.

Cyber Monday, however, should be the best time to buy apparel and computers. Apparel discounts peaked at 12.2% off the suggested manufacturer’s price between Nov. 1 and Nov. 23 but are expected to hit 25% off on Cyber Monday, Adobe said.