Trillion dollar man: New pay package could make Musk that much richer if Tesla thrives

Musk overcame doubters to turn Tesla into the world's most valuable car company, but he could face even steeper odds in hitting the targets set by the company's compensation committee — not least because of Tesla’s main business of making electric vehicles is currently in a slump, in part because of Musk's foray into right-wing politics.

“It doesn’t matter how much money he gets. He can’t help himself,” said Telemetry analyst Sam Abuelsamid who follows Tesla stock, which has plummeted 27% from its December high. “And the more he talks, the more he turns off potential customers.”

To get his first package of shares equivalent to 1% of the company, Musk would have to convince investors in the stock market that Tesla is worth $2 trillion in total, double what they value it today, and also hit several other milestones. To receive all the shares offered and make him the world’s first trillion-dollar man would require that market value to then rise to $8.5 trillion, double that of the world’s most valuable company now, chipmaker Nvidia.

Among other goals, sales of all Tesla vehicles would eventually also have to reach 20 million, nearly triple its entire sales since it was founded more than two decades ago. Musk would also have to vastly expand Tesla's robot and robotaxi businesses by selling a million of the bots and a million of the driverless cabs, the latter a business that has only begun to roll out its taxi service and is behind rivals, such as Waymo.

Musk would also need to remain with Tesla for at least seven and a half years to cash out on any stock, and 10 years to earn the full amount.

Musk has been one of the richest people in the world for several years. He is currently estimated to be worth more than $400 billion by Forbes magazine.

A condition of the 11th and 12th tranches of the plan includes Musk coming up with a framework for someone to succeed him as CEO.

The plunge in Tesla sales this year was largely due to blowback over Musk’s affiliation with President Donald Trump. Tesla also faces intensifying competition from the big Detroit automakers and particularly from China.

Tesla sales have fallen precipitously in Europe after Musk aligned with a far-right political party in German. Sales plunged 40% in July in the 27 European Union countries compared with the year earlier even as sales overall of electric vehicle soared, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. Meanwhile sales of Chinese rival BYD continued to climb fast, grabbing 1.1% market share of all car sales in the month versus Tesla’s 0.7%.

Without a reversal of those trends, meeting the financial goals could prove especially difficult. In its most recent quarter, Tesla reported that quarterly profits plunged from $1.39 billion to $409 million. Revenue also fell and the company came up short of even the lowered expectations on Wall Street.

Investors have grown increasingly worried about the trajectory of the company after Musk had spent so much time in Washington this year, becoming one of the most prominent officials in the Trump administration in its bid to slash the size of the U.S. government.

Even bulls on the stock are not convinced the new pay incentive will keep Musk, who frequently posts on his X social media platform, from saying things that alienate potential buyers.

Said Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, “Fixing the Musk brand damage remains a work in progress." Even so, Ives told clients, “We believe this was the smart move by the Board as the biggest asset for Tesla is Musk.”

In January 2024, a Delaware judge threw out Musk’s previous pay package, worth $44.9 billion at the time. Investors voted to restore that compensation package at Tesla’s last shareholders meeting on June 13 of last year. But late last year the package was revoked for a second time. Tesla has appealed the ruling. Last month, Tesla said that it gave Musk a stock grant of $29 billion as a reward for years of “transformative and unprecedented” growth — despite the drop in sales and profits — and noting that the CEO hadn’t been paid in years.

The EV company is set to hold its annual shareholders meeting on Nov. 6, where investors will vote on the new pay package. Musk would also receive more voting power over Tesla under the proposed plan. Musk has said that he needed more shares and control so he couldn’t be ousted by shareholder activists. If he does hit all the goals, Musk would own about quarter of the company’s shares, up from 13% today.

Tesla's stock nearly 3% in afternoon trading.