Peninsula politics

So, this will be a forward look at an upcoming Peninsula political year that will be among the most remarkable in a generation or more.

It is a bonanza of elective offices in which no incumbent is running: An open congressional seat, an open Assembly seat, and two open seats on the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors. Add in two contested races for sheriff and county clerk-recorder-assessor, and a full slate of city council elections in November, many of them first-time district elections.

It is the royal flush of Peninsula politics.

Here is how the landscape looks heading into 2022.

16^th Congressional District: This is the biggest one, the race to replace Jackie Speier. There are three prominent Democratic candidates, along with a Democratic novice and a Republican.

Among the three leading Democrats, Assemblymember Kevin Mullin has had the most good fortune — an endorsement from Speier, along with many county and state elected officials, and a redrawn congressional district that overlaps heavily with the Assembly district where he has been reelected handily. He has staked out climate change and political reform as his primary emphasis.

In a race where the candidates will strive to set themselves apart, Burlingame Councilmember Emily Beach has the political advantage of being the only woman in the race. She has leaned heavily into that fact and she can expect to benefit from campaign donors who seek to elect more women to all offices, as well as voters for whom gender equity in office is a driving factor. With the future of reproductive rights pending before the U.S. Supreme Court, she has seized on that issue.

No one will campaign with an energy and enthusiasm to match Supervisor David Canepa. He also has a reputation as a prodigious fundraiser and his sheer willpower makes him a force in the race. His unrelenting prominence can cause him to do things that will inspire criticism, even mockery, among political insiders. But none of that will matter to the grassroots-level voters. He labels himself a progressive, but his campaign is less about issues and more about being in touch and in sync with voters.

What may be most interesting is that no one is talking about the economy and the fears and apprehensions felt by most Americans, according to a number of national polls. In fairness, the early stages of this race have been spent raising money, getting endorsements and organizing their campaigns. Perhaps it is less of an issue on the Peninsula.

15^th Congressional District: 29-year incumbent Anna Eshoo confounded the rumormongers and announced for reelection in a district that now includes the entirety of the San Mateo County coast. This is good news for Eshoo. Her district still includes the wealthy communities of western Silicon Valley, which is where she has drawn a challenger. But her return to a larger portion of San Mateo County assures an easy reelection.

21^st Assembly District: This is the seat Mullin is leaving to run for Congress. There are two announced candidates and one being assumed by political insiders. San Mateo Councilmember Diane Papan and South San Francisco Councilmember James Coleman have announced; Redwood City Councilmember Giselle Hale is expected to run.

Papan benefits from a successful tenure on the San Mateo City Council and service on a number of regional boards and commissions that has won her a number of prominent supporters. She complained when I recently referenced her late father, longtime Assemblymember Lou Papan, and she is right to assert she has earned her own political identity. But her family name has deep ties to this district and is a fact as a political asset.

Coleman’s candidacy will be an interesting measure of the strength of young progressives as a political force. He proved in his upset victory in 2020 that he can organize and use grassroots campaigning and social media with unprecedented effectiveness in a district-level city council race. He believes these skills can transfer in the necessary strength to a much larger campaign.

Hale, in winning her first term on the council, raised an unprecedented amount of money, much of it from tech. She is expected to continue to have that advantage, as well as a demonstrated skill with social media campaigning.

And there you go. The new year is so chockablock with political stuff that I ran out of room. In the next column, I will focus on the nonpartisan races in the county.

Mark Simon is a veteran journalist, whose career included 15 years as an executive at SamTrans and Caltrain. He can be reached at marksimon@smdailyjournal.com.