NATO's chief says the alliance is on the cusp of accepting Trump's 5% defense investment demand

European allies and Canada have already been investing heavily in their armed forces, as well as on weapons and ammunition, since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

At the same time, some have balked at U.S. demands to invest 5% of GDP on defense — 3.5% on core military spending and 1.5% on the roads, bridges, airfields and sea ports needed to deploy armies more quickly.

Still struggling to meet the old goal

In 2023, as Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine entered its second year, NATO leaders agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP on national defense budgets. So far, 22 of the 32 member countries have done so, and others still struggle to do so.

Trump and his NATO counterparts appear likely to endorse the new goal at a summit in The Hague on June 24-25. Trump insists that U.S. allies should spend at least 5% so America can focus on security priorities elsewhere, mostly in the Indo-Pacific and its own borders.

He has gained important leverage over the other NATO countries by casting doubt over whether the United States would defend allies that spend too little. At the same time, Trump has imposed tariffs on ally and foe alike, citing U.S. security concerns.

The new goal would involve a 1.5% increase over the current 2% goal for defense budgets. It means that all 32 countries would be investing the same percentage.

The United States spends by far more than any other ally in dollar terms.

But according to NATO's most recent figures, it was estimated to have spent 3.19% of GDP in 2024, down from 3.68% a decade ago. It's the only ally whose spending has dropped since 2014.

While the two new figures do add up to 5%, factoring in improvements to civilian infrastructure so that armies can deploy more quickly significantly changes the basis on which NATO traditionally calculates defense spending.

The seven-year time frame is also short by the alliance's usual standards. The far more modest 2% target — set after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in 2014 — was meant to be reached over a decade.

US leadership at NATO

According to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Trump has done nothing less than save NATO.

He told reporters that European allies around the table on Thursday had said: "We hear you. We all need increased capabilities. We all need to spend more. Thank you, President Trump, for reviving this alliance. It was an alliance that was sleepwalking to irrelevance."

The extra spending will also be needed should the Trump administration announce a force draw down in Europe, where around 84,000 U.S. troops are based, leaving European allies to plug any security gaps.

Asked what the Pentagon's plans are, Hegseth did not explain but he said: "It would only be responsible for the United States to continually assess our force posture, which is precisely what we've done."

"America can't be everywhere all the time, nor should we be, and so there are reasons why we have troops in certain places," he said, offering the assurance that any review would be done "alongside our allies and partners to make sure it's the right size."

Endorsing "capability targets"

During the meeting, Hegseth and his defense counterparts also approved purchasing targets for stocking up on weapons and military equipment to better defend Europe, the Arctic and the North Atlantic, as part of the U.S. push to ramp up security spending.

The "capability targets" lay out goals for each of the 32 nations to purchase priority equipment like air defense systems, long-range missiles, artillery, ammunition, drones and "strategic enablers" such as air-to-air refueling, heavy air transport and logistics. Each nation's plan is classified, so details are scarce.

The new targets are assigned by NATO based on a blueprint agreed upon in 2023 — the military organization's biggest planning shakeup since the Cold War — to defend its territory from an attack by Russia or another major adversary.

Under those plans, NATO would aim to have up to 300,000 troops ready to move to its eastern flank within 30 days, although experts suggest the allies would struggle to muster those kinds of numbers.

The member countries are assigned roles in defending NATO territory across three major zones — the high north and Atlantic area, a zone north of the Alps, and another in southern Europe.

NATO planners believe that the targets must be met within 5-10 years, given the speed at which Russia is building its armed forces now, and which would accelerate were any peace agreement reached to end its war on Ukraine.