Brazil's Supreme Court nears a verdict in coup plot trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro

Bolsonaro did not attend the court.

The far-right ex-president is facing five counts at trial for allegedly conspiring to stage a coup after his narrow loss to current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist who first won the presidency two decades earlier.

If convicted by the five-judge panel in the verdict expected Thursday or Friday, Bolsonaro could be sentenced to decades behind bars.

Bolsonaro has always denied any wrongdoing, repeatedly calling the trial a politically motivated attack.

Trump interest in trial outcome

Dozens of Bolsonaro loyalists gathered Monday evening outside his Brasilia home. They prayed for him, criticized the Supreme Court justice overseeing the case — Alexandre de Moraes — and sought to exert pressure on lawmakers to approve some kind of amnesty for the embattled ex-leader.

Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet said last week in court that Bolsonaro led a multipronged plot to cling to power illegally that included casting doubt over the country’s electronic voting system and encouraging a Jan. 8, 2023, riot Gonet described as intended to force an army takeover.

Prosecutors have pointed to evidence that Bolsonaro assembled top Cabinet and military officials to discuss issuing an emergency decree aimed at suspending the election outcome of October 2022 in order to investigate alleged voting fraud.

But defense lawyer Celso Vilardi vehemently noted the decree was never issued.

“The planning is not the execution. No matter how detailed the planning may be, it is the act of violence that actually consummates the crime,” Vilardi told the justices at the televised proceedings. “Bolsonaro ordered a transition.”

Bolsonaro ”did not act against the democratic rule of law,” he added.

Bolsonaro called himself the victim of a “witch hunt,” using the same expression as U.S. President Donald Trump in defending his right-wing ally. Trump has directly tied a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods to his ally’s judicial situation and is expected to be closely watching the trial outcome.

On Sunday, tens of thousands of Bolsonaro supporters took to the streets. In Sao Paulo, his wife Michelle Bolsonaro said in a speech that he loves the country.

Each of the five justices is to vote on Bolsonaro’s guilt or innocence, with a majority of three votes enough to convict. If one of the justices requests a longer review, the verdict could be delayed for up to 90 days, but court experts have said that’s unlikely.

Bolsonaro is charged with five counts: attempting to stage a coup, involvement in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law and two counts involving destruction of state property.

A guilty verdict on the coup plot charge alone carries a sentence of up to 12 years.

Remains under house arrest

In the event of a guilty verdict, each justice can recommend a sentence. If recommendations differ, a single justice chosen among the panel would determine an average of the prison time and possible fines.

Seven other close allies of Bolsonaro are being tried alongside the ex-president, including Walter Braga Netto, his former running mate and defense minister, and Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, another former defense minister.

Deemed a flight risk, Bolsonaro is wearing an ankle monitor and remains under house arrest. He did not appear in court last week due to ill health, Vilardi told journalists. The ex-president needs an unspecified medical procedure, Vilardi told the judge Monday, suggesting Bolsonaro might not attend court this week either.

The trial marks a historic moment in Brazil: For the first time, high-ranking military officers and a former president accused of plotting against democratic rule are standing trial.

‘Quite unpredictable’

Despite pressure from the White House, Brazil’s Supreme Court has kept the trial on track.

Observers said any U.S. sanctions against Brazilian authorities could be announced after the trial, further straining their fragile diplomatic relations.

Government officials or other Supreme Court justices could be sanctioned, like De Moraes already was late July, said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a think tank and university.

The reaction “could also involve broader visa restrictions for government officials, or more tariffs,” Stuenkel said. “It’s quite unpredictable.”

On Saturday night, Lula delivered a national message ahead of Sunday's Independence Day celebrations saying Brazil “will not be anyone’s colony,” taking an indirect swipe at the Trump administration.

Dorgelina Souza Oliveira de Medeiros, 72, wants Trump to put even more pressure on Brazil to help free Bolsonaro. For more than a week she has joined other supporters of the former president close to his home despite the fact many of them believe he will be jailed anyway.

“His sentence was ready before this trial began. We want amnesty for all so those jailed can be released, those in exile can come back,” de Medeiros said. “We are suffering, but I trust God that things will change. I hope that even in this trial there could be a miracle.”

Hughes reported from Rio de Janeiro.

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