Caltrain fares have not returned to pre-pandemic levels of around $83 million in 2019, with the proposed 2024 budget estimating around $30 million in revenue.
Caltrain and SamTrans have seen significant ridership recovery in April and May of 2022 compared to the last two years, although 2022 totals still lag behind pre-pandemic numbers.
Caltrain saw total April ridership rise to around 397,000 in 2022 compared to 124,000 in 2021, a 219% increase. The average weekday ridership is about 15,400, with 4,600 in 2021. Total ridership in 2022 is 2.9 million, a significant increase compared to 2021. Farebox revenue increased to $2.5 million in April 2022 compared to $1.4 million last year. A Caltrain staff report said most growth is likely due to fewer restrictions from the pandemic, more people returning to the office and increased train commutes to sporting events like San Francisco Giants games and special events like Bay to Breakers, the Golden State Warriors Parade, and the San Francisco Pride Parade, according to transit spokesperson Dan Lieberman. Giant’s home games had contributed significantly, with ridership stronger on weekends than weekdays. Caltrain electrification is expected to increase ridership improved customer experience, significantly increase train service and reduce noise for surrounding communities.
“Caltrain isn’t out of the woods yet, but we’re still helping thousands of people get where they need to go and getting cars off Highway 101, and we’re confident those numbers will continue to grow,” Lieberman said.
Despite the stronger numbers, Caltrain has only seen around 25% return of its pre-pandemic baseline, falling behind other Bay Area transit agencies like VTA, which has had half its user return. Caltrain staff attributes this to its high dependence on office commuters still working from home.
Other agencies like SamTrans have more essential workers who have returned in person. Caltrain has previously said recovery would highly depend on workers returning to the office. Ridership consists of office commute trips to downtown San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
A Bay Area Council survey said only 23% of employers require an in-office presence five days a week. Around 44% of employees plan to go to the office a maximum of three days a week. While the short term remains uncertain, a Caltrain survey found that 70% of former riders expect to return to Caltrain once the pandemic is over.
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Other issues like less traffic congestion on roads to incentivize public transit remain factors. Caltrain farebox revenue is highly dependent on ridership and faces financial cost challenges in the coming years due to lower ridership, the pandemic and project costs.
SamTrans ridership data shows the average weekday ridership in May 2022 was 27,875, better than the 17,137 in May 2021. SamTrans’s total ridership in May was 717,664, an improvement on the 462,562 total in May 2021. SamTrans ridership data for April 2022 shows 63.9% of riders compared to the same period in 2019, better than other local agencies. The year-to-date total trips for 2022 was 5.6 million, although it is still down from the 8.8 million in 2019. Muni, AC Transit in Oakland and the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority have recovery percentage rates in the low 50s. The recovery rate is around 58.9% for bus systems nationwide.
“SamTrans is recovering well, relative to other Bay Area transit agencies, with nearly two thirds of its pre-pandemic numbers,” Lieberman said.
There’s still room for improvement, but with the implementation of Reimagine SamTrans in August, we expect those numbers to continue to increase as more people learn of the advantages of transit over sitting in traffic.
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