Trump-Xi summit comes with high stakes for Taiwan, the island democracy that China claims as its own

All the while, Trump has, with the threat of hefty tariffs, prodded Taipei to agree to massive investments in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing and to purchase billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. liquefied natural gas and crude oil.

The president during an Oval Office exchange with reporters on Monday said that he expected Xi would ask him to hold back on arming Taiwan.

“I’m going to have that discussion with President Xi,” Trump said about China's strong opposition to the U.S. providing weapons to Taiwan. “President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion.”

Trump's rhetoric is fueling speculation in Beijing, Taipei and Washington about America’s commitment to help the island defend itself and whether the Republican president could be persuaded to cede ground on the long-standing U.S. posture toward the island.

Taiwan’s backers are concerned that Taipei will be “on the menu” when Trump and Xi sit down for talks, said retired U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery.

“I do worry that we have a transactional president and a transactional opportunity could arise, and then we would have a challenge,” said Montgomery, now with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank that supports robust U.S. backing of Taiwan.

Rubio says US policy is unchanged

The Chinese have signaled they intend to make Taiwan a central part of the talks. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi raised Taiwan during a call with Secretary of State Marco Rubio to prepare for the trip, and urged the United States to “make the right choices” about its policies toward the island in order to safeguard “stability” between the two nations, according to a statement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

But Rubio said U.S. policy has not changed. “We don’t want to see any forced or compelled change in the situation,” he told reporters in Rome on Friday, saying it “would be destabilizing to the world.” He noted that Taiwan would not be “a feature of our trip, but it’ll certainly be an item that’s discussed.”

White House officials have underscored that Trump, who also approved $330 million in aircraft parts for Taiwan's military in November, has already approved more in military sales for Taiwan in the first year of his second term than the roughly $8.4 billion that Democratic President Joe Biden approved over his four years in office.

Taiwan has been under pressure from the Trump administration to increase its defense spending, and on Friday its lawmakers broke months of gridlock to approve $25 billion in arms purchases. It was significantly less than the $40 billion proposal put forward last year by Taiwan President Lai Ching-te. A senior Trump administration official, who spoke to reporters on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House, said it was disappointing that the parliament did not fully fund Lai's proposal.

Taiwanese government officials have expressed concern about China's rhetoric ahead of the summit, though they've also taken some comfort from Rubio's measured comments.

“(China) may attempt some maneuvering during the talks, but the U.S. has repeatedly reiterated, through both public and private channels, that its policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged,” National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen told reporters.

Xi may look to loosen US-Taiwan ties

The key question, China experts say, is just how far Xi will try to go in his effort to prod Trump closer to Beijing's view.

China sees the self-ruled Taiwan as a renegade province, to be annexed by force if necessary. It prohibits countries it has diplomatic relations with from having formal ties with Taipei. Since establishing diplomatic relations with modern China in 1979, the U.S. has managed to stay within the framework of Beijing’s demands while maintaining informal support for Taiwan and providing it with arms.

As part of the U.S. ambiguity on Taiwan, Washington acknowledges Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China but does not explicitly endorse it. The U.S. has also historically stated it “does not support” Taiwan’s independence and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo between Taiwan and China.

But analysts say Xi could seek to persuade Trump — who already has demonstrated a willingness to blur the lines of traditional diplomacy — to loosen ties with Taiwan through curbs on U.S. arms sales or with informal limits on visits by prominent U.S. officials to the island. In February, Trump suggested he broke from longstanding U.S. policy and consulted with Xi on arms sales to Taiwan.

“Even if we don’t see something as dramatic as a formal shift in declaratory policy, this time around, there is always a risk that President Trump may make an off-the-cuff remark given he’s not necessarily somebody who appreciates the nuances of longstanding policy language,” said Patricia Kim of the Assessing China Project at Brookings Institution in Washington.

White House sits out Japan-China rift

A row between U.S. ally Japan and China has also raised speculation about the strength of Trump's commitment to Taiwan. In November, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said a Chinese attack on Taiwan was of concern to the region and could constitute “a survival-threatening situation” for Japan, requiring the use of force.

Trump made back-to-back calls with Takaichi and Xi that same month, though he's remained largely silent about the spat.

“I know they have a little bit of an edgy relationship,” Trump said as he hosted Takaichi for talks in March.

Additionally, Trump’s backing of Taiwan faced scrutiny after the 2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy omitted direct mention of the island.

The best-case scenario for Taiwan

One card Taiwan holds is its robust semiconductor sector, the world’s largest, which the U.S. relies on to maintain an edge in its advanced-technology race against China.

“Trump at the very least realizes the role that Taiwan plays in the U.S.’s economic growth,” said Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University. “So I think that is sort of the main silver lining in thinking that nothing drastic will change in terms of policy toward Taiwan.”

While Trump is known for his transactional nature, his administration has not viewed difficult aspects of the U.S.-China relationship as “fungible” issues that can be traded, said Edgard Kagan, a former senior State Department official who served under Trump and Biden on East Asia policy issues.

“The president understands leverage. My experience of being in meetings with him, he has a very, very acute sense of how to use it,” said Kagan, who is now the China Studies chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “And so I think that the idea that there’s going to be a trade where the president sort of sacrifices U.S. interests in Taiwan in order to get other things — I think it’s unlikely based on my own experience of how he operates.”

In the end, whether the island comes out of the Xi-Trump summit on a stronger or weaker footing will likely be judged by the leaders’ public statements.

Trump on Monday reiterated that he's confident that Xi won't take military action against Taiwan under his watch.

“I think the best-case scenario Taiwan can hope for is that Taiwan is not talked about publicly or, at the very least, in a minimal way,” Nachman said.

Mistreanu reported from Taipei. Associated Press writer Giada Zampano in Rome contributed to this report.