Mutating COVID-19 variants appear to be evading immunity gained from infection or vaccines leading to transmission rates in the county that will likely remain through the near future. Still, officials shared confidence in the county’s ability to treat and respond to an uptick in cases.
“Our situation is influenced significantly by the BA.5 variant that is now dominant in California. As the variants outcompete their predecessors, we see that they are even more transmissible and able to evade the immune response of both vaccination and prior infection, prolonging this period of high community transmission,” Chief of Health Louise Rogers said in a new Update from the Chief published Tuesday.
While providing a similar COVID-19 update during Tuesday’s Board of Supervisors meeting, health officials said the county is facing a high but stabilizing transmission rate as more contagious strains of the omicron variant spreads across communities.
The variant was already known to be more contagious than other versions of the virus but high uptake in vaccines by county residents has been credited with preventing some of the virus’ worsts side effects — hospitalizations and death.
Hospitalizations are about double what they were in early May, Director of Public Health Marc Meulman said, but are far below the daily average hospitalizations the county has grappled with in the past.
An average of 20 patients were being treated in early May but starting later in the month, Meulman said hospitalizations have fluctuated between 30 and 50 patients per day. More than 200 patients were hospitalized a day during the winter of 2020 when the delta variant was most prominent.
Rogers and Meulman said cases may tick up following holiday celebrations over the Fourth of July weekend but a greater spike due to the BA.5 variant is not currently anticipated.
“What we’re finding is that as these subvariants come along, one will overtake the previous because, essentially, they are more infectious,” he said. “The smartest people are thinking we’re likely at a somewhat sustained level and not necessarily seeing a spike. That also changes as new variants come along.”
The Centers for Disease Control, which monitors national COVID-19 data trends and publishes them on its COVID Data Tracker dashboard, bumped the county from its medium-risk yellow tier to its high-risk red tier nearly two weeks ago and the county has remained in that tier ever since. According to the dashboard, about 11 residents for every 100,000 in the county are contracting the virus a day, based on a seven day rolling average.
Given that fewer residents are turning to community testing sites as at-home tests become more accessible, Rogers said officials have adjusted how they monitor community spread by focusing more on hospitalization rates.
Wastewater samples from the Silicon Valley Clean Water processing plant are also being monitored through Stanford University’s Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network Program. The data points help the county better understand what transmission looks like in the county because people who are asymptomatic and less likely to test still leave traces of the virus behind in their waste.
Meanwhile, Dr. Anand Chabra, medical director for family health services, said the county’s main message is the “importance of staging up to date.” Officials encouraged the public to get vaccinated and to keep up with recommended boosters. Staying informed and practicing safety precautions like wearing a high-quality mask while indoors is also vital.
“We’re not concerned about hospital capacity at this point and it will be hospital capacity that’s the biggest signal for us,” Rogers said. “And also we see that people’s experience of the virus increasingly is not of severe disease if they are vaccinated.”
Visit the County Health website at smchealth.org/coronavirus for more information on vaccine and testing opportunities, COVID-19 data and additional information.
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