San Mateo County election results come into focus

15th Congressional District: Assemblymember Kevin Mullin finished the primary with a lead of nearly 18 points over second-place-finisher San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa.

Mullin said he was “humbled” by the outcome. Canepa announced from his signature campaign setting, a busy street corner, “It looks like the coronation is not happening, folks.”

At least, not until November.

If you look at all the votes cast for someone else in the primary, Canepa would have to get half of them just to pull even with Mullin, a formidable task.

And, it would seem, an unlikely one.

Canepa has labeled himself a hardcore progressive, which could make it hard to win over large chunks of the voters who went for someone else — particularly Burlingame Councilmember Emily Beach and Republican Gus Mattammal, who got more than 20% of the primary vote.

Canepa came out firing at Mullin, labeling him a “political legacy, corporate pharmaceutical representative, and Sacramento insider.”

The world biotech industry, which gave a relatively modest amount of money to Mullin, is centered in South San Francisco, where Mullin served councilmember. To the Canepa campaign, this is Big Pharma and an example of “his corporatist backers.”

Will Canepa, whose fundraising slackened during the primary, have the money to deliver this anti-corporate message? And are people as uneasy about the biotech industry as they appear to be about high tech?

21st Assembly District: We assume the Papan campaign has survey data showing the public profoundly uneasy about the tech industry around issues of privacy and extreme speech.

The relentless independent and Papan attacks on Hale, which included tying her to Facebook, where she worked for a decade, certainly drove down her vote totals (and maybe Papan’s), although it appears the effort will fall short of fending off a Papan-Hale showdown. Buckle up.

SHERIFF’S RACE: How did Sheriff’s Capt. Christina Corpus beat incumbent Sheriff Carlos Bolanos despite being outspent 2-1? More notably, Bolanos began this campaign year with $377,000 in cash on hand; Corpus had $74,000.

The answer: Corpus ran a near-flawless campaign. She and her fervent supporters outworked Bolanos, who clearly did not believe he could lose to someone he disrespected as unqualified.

Circumstances helped. Law enforcement has been under critical scrutiny for five years. Hand in hand, there has been a growing dissatisfaction with the status quo that extends to every government level.

Perhaps this race became a focal point for such dissatisfaction, a referendum on the same old stuff from the same old guys — a collection of insiders who are perceived as running this county for decades. In addition, there has been a steadfast collection of people who passionately dislike Bolanos for a menu of issues. These activists unsuccessfully opposed Bolanos four years ago, but found in Corpus a viable challenger — an experienced, appealing Latina — around whom they could coalesce.

All of which adds up to a convincing win by Corpus, leading by more than 11 points, according to the latest vote count. At some point, and I guess this is that point, it can no longer be called an upset and more accurately be seen as a misread of the political climate by certain, ahem, political observers.

YUM! About those observations. Yes, I doubted the poll by Corpus showing her beating Bolanos by 10 points. I thought she could win in a close race. Two weeks ago, I wrote, that if Corpus won by 10 points, I would eat that column. I am picturing a cereal bowl, lots of milk and maybe some crow. Once the count is final, I will post something on social media demonstrating that I kept this campaign promise.

SUPES RACES: The race for District 2 supervisor between Belmont Councilmember Charles Stone and Noelia Corzo, San Mateo-Foster City School District trustee, is headed to a November runoff. General election voters tend to be a little younger and a little more liberal, which would seem to give a boost to Corzo. But the Stone campaign may be feeling that it took it too easy on Corzo in the primary. … In District 3, Menlo Park Councilmember Ray Mueller and San Carlos Councilmember Laura Parmer-Lohan started the primary essentially neck and neck. And that is where they are heading into November.

Mark Simon is a veteran journalist, whose career included 15 years as an executive at SamTrans and Caltrain. He can be reached at marksimon@smdailyjournal.com.