Oil prices jumped Tuesday for the second straight day and gas prices moved higher in the United States, underscoring the threat of rising inflation posed by the Iran war. Coming after nearly five years of elevated costs, even a modest pickup in prices could further sour many Americans on the economy and heighten the affordability concerns that have become a top political issue. A key issue, economists say, is how long the conflict lasts and whether key shipping routes, such a the Strait of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, are closed. About one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas is shipped through the Strait.
By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER and PAUL WISEMAN Associated Press Writers
President Donald Trump sought in his first State of the Union address to sell Americans on the idea of a booming economy, falling prices, and soaring jobs, yet he faces a skeptical public with a much gloomier view. Barely 12 hours before his speech, in fact, The Conference Board, a business research group, released its latest consumer confidence report. It showed that overall confidence in the economy remains historically low, and is barely above the level it plunged to in the depths of the COVID recession. Other polling has yielded similar results: Only 39% of Americans approve of Trump's economic leadership, according to the latest Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey.
By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER and MATT OTT AP Economics Writers
U.S. economic growth slowed in the final three months of last year, dragged down by the six-week shutdown of the federal government and a pullback in consumer spending. The figures point to what could be a more modest pace of growth in the coming quarters, as consumers take on more debt and cut back on saving to maintain their spending. Business investment, outside data centers and other equipment dedicated to artificial intelligence, grew at only a moderate pace. Still, a measure of underlying growth that focuses on consumer and business spending was mostly solid, economists said. The sharp slowdown in government outlays because of the shutdown shaved a full percentage point from growth.
U.S. employers added a surprisingly strong 130,000 jobs last month, but government revisions cut 2024-25 U.S. payrolls by hundreds of thousands. The Labor Department said Wednesday that the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. The report included major revisions that reduced the number of jobs created last year to just 181,000, weakest since the pandemic year of 2020, and less than half the previously reported 584,000. The job market has been sluggish for months even though the economy is registering solid growth.
U.S. job openings fell to the lowest level in more than five years, another sign that the American labor market remains sluggish. The Labor Department reported Thursday that vacancies fell to 6.5 million in December — from 6.9 million in November and the lowest since September 2020. Layoffs rose slightly. The number of people quitting their jobs — which shows confidence in their prospects — was basically unchanged at 3.2 million.
President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve could bring about sweeping changes at a central bank that dominates the global economy and markets like no other. Warsh, if approved by the Senate, will be under close scrutiny from financial markets and Congress given his appointment by a president who has loudly demanded much lower rates than many economists think are justified by economic conditions. Whether he can maintain the Fed's long time independence from day-to-day politics while also placating Trump will be a tremendous challenge. Warsh would replace current chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in May. Trump chose Powell to lead the Fed in 2017 but this year has relentlessly assailed him for not cutting interest rates quickly enough.
The U.S. economy economy expanded at a strong 4.3% annual rate from July through September as consumer spending, exports and government spending all grew. Tuesday's report from the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product — the economy's total output of goods and services — up from its 3.8% growth rate in the April-June quarter. Analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet forecast growth of 3% in the period. However, inflation remains higher than the Federal Reserve would like. The Fed's favored inflation gauge — called the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE — climbed to a 2.8% annual pace last quarter, up from 2.1% in the second quarter.
