Americans' view of the U.S. economy declined modestly in August as anxiety over a weakening job market grew for the eighth straight month. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index ticked down by1.3 points to 97.4 in August, down from July's 98.7, but in the same narrow range of the past three months. A measure of Americans' short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market fell by 1.2 points to 74.8, remaining significantly below 80, the marker that can signal a recession ahead. Consumers' assessments of their current economic situation also fell modestly, to 131.2 in August from 132.8 in July.
The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump's import taxes at least temporarily disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in a a downgrade from its previous estimate. First-quarter growth sank under a surge of imports as companies in the United States rushed to bring in foreign goods before Trump could impose tariffs on them. The Commerce Department previously estimated that the economy fell 0.2% in the first quarter. The January-March drop in gross domestic product — the nation's output of goods and services — reversed a 2.4% increase in the last three months of 2024 and marked the first time in three years that the economy contracted.
Americans' views of the economy improved in May after five straight months of declines sent consumer confidence to the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, largely driven by anxiety over the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose 12.3 points in May to 98, up from April's 85.7, its lowest reading since May 2020. A measure of Americans' short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market jumped 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained below 80, which can signal a recession ahead.
An inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve remained high last month even before the impact of most tariffs has been felt. Americans' spending rebounded in February after a fall last month and incomes increased. Friday's report from the Commerce Department showed that consumer prices increased 2.5% in February from a year earlier, matching January's annual pace. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices rose 2.8% compared with a year ago, higher than January's figure of 2.7%. Inflation remains a top economic concern for most Americans, even as it has fallen sharply from its 2022 peak.
