Home sale prices take a dip in San Mateo County

“The most significant change that I’ve seen in the first half of 2025 has been the rise of inventory. Active homes listings have increased for six consecutive quarters before peaking in May,” Peter Gum, Realtor at Keller Williams Peninsula Estates, said. “That peak hasn’t been seen since August 2022. There are big inventory increases.”

Rather than a local phenomenon, Gum attributes much of the rise to uncertainty at the federal and state levels. Sellers were waiting to see if the new administration would change, or encourage changes, to policies like the capital gains exclusion, which has disincentivized sellers, or the interest rate deduction on mortgage debt, he said.

Recently, the Federal Reserve signaled a possible interest rate decrease — with additional pressure coming from Trump — which would subsequently affect the fixed-year mortgage rates.

“Many sellers are afraid to continue to wait, and they’re afraid they may be exposed to even more egregious market conditions, like higher interest rates or higher taxes,” Gum said. “In spite of all the reasons you wouldn’t want to sell, you’re faced with a number of the concerns that maybe things are going to get worse.”

Decrease in median sale prices

Median home sale prices in San Mateo County saw a slight decrease from $2 million last July for a single-family home to $1.9 million in July, according to MLS data. The July 2025 figure is also slightly lower than February median sale price of $2.1 million. Average days to sell also increased from 21 days to 25 days year over year.

The Peninsula is always going to have high demand compared to other areas, but the drop in sale prices could have been stronger if the buyer market, especially among Gen Z and millennials, were a little stronger, Gum said.

“Gen Z and millennials have reduced interest in ownership,” Gum said. “The renters that I talk to — who would otherwise be in the market — are choosing not to do so. They are saying they have no immediate need to buy, their investments are growing, and they don’t want the burden and hassles of ownership.”

Add on the difficulty obtaining homeowner insurance — or the exorbitant premiums — and many are choosing not to take on the added costs or the risk of abruptly losing coverage. Realtors are also advising clients to get multiple quotes for insurance before running offers.

Condo market

The condominium market continues taking a hit, with the median sales price dropping by 19% between June 2022 and June 2025. The year-over-year drop from June 2024 to 2025 has been about 12%, from $794,000 to $700,000, according to Redfin data.

As cities and counties face more mandates to build housing, much of that in places like the Peninsula — which has limited land to build on — comes in the form of multiunit apartment buildings, rather than single-family neighborhoods, thus increasing supply. Gum said emigration is also impacting demand.

“The high-income end of the market aren’t the ones who are leaving the area or California. It’s the mid to low end of the market, and those are the people that buy condos so the demand has reduced in that segment,” he said.