Experts say dips in rent won’t linger

Rent analyst Chris Salviati with online database Apartmentlist suggested the downtick could be attributed to seasonal trends, as apartment hunters typically sit out the holiday season, leading to a regular listing price swoon.

“The late fall and winter are off seasons for big moves, so we typically see that dip this time of year,” said Salviati, whose website shows local rent listings have dropped incrementally for each of the past four months.

Zumper marketing manager Crystal Chen agreed the price drop is likely only temporary, considering the widespread appeal of living near the wealth of local, lucrative job opportunities.

“San Mateo and the majority of the Bay Area are not seeing much relief, even in the current slow moving season, which only highlights the intense demand for housing here,” she said in an email.

A chart supplied by Chen bears out the seasonality claims, as data show median one-bedroom listings started in February at $2,510 and climbed to a peak of $2,610 in June before dropping down to a low of $2,470 in September.

San Mateo’s path follows a typical rental trend of slow yearly starts giving way to a warmer market as the weather heats up and a cooling down coming with the fall and winter months.

While differences exist between the rental figures offered by Apartmentlist and Zumper — often to the chagrin of local experts who claim the figures are too expensive — Craigslist listings in San Mateo confirm the Zumper findings as well. Between one dozen independently listed available one-bedroom units, the average rental asking price is $2,550, with a high of $3,257 and low of $1,995.

Local property managers have been quick to note though the asking price data is not representative of the amounts paid by most locally who are often living in older units for less rent.

Apartmentlist has acknowledged its data trends expensive, as the database skews toward tracking new listings which are often luxury units toting hefty asking prices.

Despite the occasional differences of opinion regarding the true median costs, both online analysts agree the one-bedroom rental market largely stayed flat for the year.

While rents are still higher than most other areas across the state and nation, even a marginal slowing in the astronomical price jumps known in years past may be considered a win for exhausted renters, said Salviati.

“At a certain point there are only so many additional rent increases the market will be able to handle,” he said. “Basically even though the Bay Area has a lot of high-paying jobs, there is a limit to what people are willing to pay for rent.”

While the one-bedroom listings may be hitting a ceiling, Chen claims the market for two-bedroom units is seemingly unaffected by the typical seasonal market downturn.

Median listing prices for two-bedroom units jumped to $3,240 in December according to Zumper’s data, an average increase of nearly 10 percent over the past year.

Again, the relative proximity to jobs at tech giants such as Oracle and Facebook drive much of the market demand which, when paired with a limited stock of larger units, pushes the price sky high, she said.

Considering the variety of factors working in the favor of landlords, Chen was pessimistic asking prices will decline any time soon.

“The fact that San Mateo does not have a lot of available space to build new supply to meet this ever-growing demand will only continue to propel prices upward,” she said.

Salviati shared a similar perspective, suggesting the temporary discount renters may be currently enjoying would likely not be a trend to count on for long.

“Things have been slowing down but there’s some question as to whether that will continue into the new year,” he said.

austin@smdailyjournal.com

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