A look at the Thanksgiving shopping weekend and what's next

Of course, the weekend looks a lot different from 15 years ago, when shoppers camped out in the wee hours of the morning and fought in store aisles for doorbusters like TVs. Shoppers are still heading to stores, but the biggest growth is online, which now accounts for 30% of total holiday sales. That's up from 15% in 2012, according to the National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group.

Adobe Analytics reported Tuesday that so-called Cyber Week — the five-day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday — brought in $44.2 billion online overall, up 7.7% year-over-year, bolstered by record spending online during Black Friday.

On Cyber Monday, consumers spent $14.25 billion, up 7.1% and making it again the year's biggest online shopping day.

National Retail Federation’s CEO Matt Shay said Tuesday that shoppers wall off the winter holidays from all the economic noise, building a moat around the season.

“The holidays is really very much an emotional purchase,” Shay said. “Families plan for it. They invest in it. And as a component of the holidays, the five-day Thanksgiving weekend is really the psychological kickoff of the holidays.”

Based on the group's survey of shoppers from the weekend, Shay called the period a “very solid beginning” to the holiday season.

The group still expects sales over November and December of between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. That would be up 3.7% to 4.2% more than last year.

Here's a look at the data, the discounts, and what's next for retailers among other issues:

The latest data shows record traffic

Software company Salesforce reported that for Cyber Week — it measures from Nov. 25 through Monday — global online sales increased to $336.6 billion, up 7% compared with the year-ago period. U.S. online sales increased to $79.6 billion, up 5% year for that week, compared with the year-ago period.

The Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, reported on Tuesday that more than 235,000 people visited the iconic center on Black Friday, making it the busiest Black Friday on record in the mall's history. The traffic number was up 8.5% compared with the same day on 2024 and nearly 2% above pre-pandemic 2019, the mall said.

Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks in-person and online spending, reported Saturday that overall Black Friday sales excluding automotive rose 4.1% from a year ago. The retail sales indicator, not adjusted for inflation, showed online sales jumped by double digits — 10.4% — while in-store purchases inched up 1.7%.

Still, shoppers were laser-focused.

William Lewis, marketing director of Westfield Garden State Plaza in Paramus, New Jersey, noted on Black Friday that, “People are definitely buying.” But Lewis noted that shoppers are more targeted and have done their homework ahead of time on social media or store sites.

“They know exactly where they are going,” he added.

Discounts were generous, but don't expect them to get better

Ahead of the Thanksgiving weekend, promotions didn't come as early as last year or were more muted, according to some malls and analysts. But for the big weekend, retailers ramped up discounting to be in line with last year's sales event, according to Adobe and big malls like Mall of America.

But if shoppers were dilly dallying about buying a specific sweater and waiting for the prices to go down after this weekend, that may not be the best strategy. Discounts won't improve on many items, and stores came into the season with leaner inventory amid an uncertain economy, analysts said.

Vivek Pandya, Adobe's director of Adobe Digital Insights, noted that prior to the Thanksgiving weekend kickoff, discounts on average ranged from 10% to 17% and then accelerated to an average range of 18% to 30% for the holiday kickoff.

But he expects that retailers will likely pull back from those discounts and will hover a little above what shoppers saw to the run-up of Black Friday. The exception would be poor-selling seasonal items, which need to be sold before Dec. 25, Pandya said.

As for inventory, there were fears of empty shelves when tariff rates ballooned in April, but analysts said stores were able to navigate the vacillating tariff policy, bringing in goods at lower rates.

Nikki Baird, vice president of strategy at Aptos, a retail technology firm which works with fashion clients, noted that, “I think consumers will continue to find the things that they’re looking for, but there will be fewer choices.”

Some shoppers relied on artificial intelligence tools

Shoppers are using AI tools to track prices or get gift recommendations, though the usage is still modest. On Cyber Monday, AI traffic to U.S. retail sites — measured by shoppers clicking on a link — increased by nearly eightfold, according to Adobe. From Nov. 1 through Dec. 1, AI traffic is up nearly ninefold, it said.

The services were used most in categories including video games, appliances, electronics, toys, and personal care products, according to Adobe.

Salesforce reported that across Cyber Week, AI and agents influenced 20% of all orders, accounting for $67 billion in global sales. In the U.S., AI and agents drove 17% of orders, or $13.5 billion in sales. The figure encompasses everything from a ChatGPT query to AI-supplied gift suggestions on a retailer’s website.

What's next

The Thanksgiving weekend is a key barometer of spending for the season. But with worries of rising prices, will shoppers taper their spending as the season progresses? And what about next year?

Baird said she will be looking at the period between the post-Thanksgiving weekend and the last week before Christmas to see whether spending keeps up.

"I think that will help us answer the question of whether this was a concentration of spending or a trend of spending," she said.

Tiffany Yeh, a managing director and partner at Boston Consulting Group, believes there will be strong spending throughout the rest of the holiday season. Her concern is what’s in store for 2026. Yeh cited the consultancy’s shopper surveys pointing to consumers delaying purchases in order to spend during the holidays. She wonders if shoppers will mute their spending or instead steady their buying.