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What does low voter turnout mean?
November 02, 2007, 12:00 AM
For some, next Tuesday is a very big deal. It’s election day and there are more than 100 people running in contested elections in San Mateo County. With more than half the people voting by mail, many decisions are already made. But this weekend will see a flurry of activity. Look for mailers, blogs, press releases and always with it, a lot of misinformation.

But for the majority of people, next Tuesday is simply the sixth day of November. They are thinking of watching House on television, when they might take down the Halloween decorations, if Obama really has a chance and who might be coming over for Thanksgiving.

So what does that mean for the people spending thousands of dollars for spots on local councils, school boards and special districts? Mostly it means that the candidates with the most active backers will win since only the highly motivated voters will take the time to either send in their ballots or actually fill in the blanks at the polls. With most jurisdictions only having two to three races each, it takes a lot to get people out in this busy time of the year.

Essentially, this bodes well for the incumbents since they already have a firm batch of supporters. In Redwood City, it means incumbents Barbara Pierce, Rosanne Foust, Alicia Aguirre and Ian Bain are virtually assured a win but Bain may be the odd man out if challenger Kevin Bondonno gets enough votes. In San Mateo incumbents John Lee and Jack Matthews are assured a win. In San Bruno, incumbents Jim Ruane and Irene O’Connell are facing only token opposition and will win. And in Burlingame, incumbent Terry Nagel is guaranteed a win while Councilman Russ Cohen will also pull it out despite some intense competition from Jerry Deal, Gene Condon and Peter Comaroto, though I suspect Comaroto will fall well short on election day. His sidewalk “backdoor tax” and “new recreation center” issues never seemed to gain traction.

The other races are more of a tossup since there are incumbents not running. Probably the most intense of these races is in Foster City. Take one look at the sheer volume of signs on nearly every Foster City street and that will become apparent. Incumbents Linda Koelling and Rick Wykoff will pull out all the stops to win and newcomer Huijan Ring has created enough of a stir with her call for a public charter high school at the city’s center. The people who have long called for such a school will definitely turn out Tuesday. And as an Asian American, she has plenty of support in that community that would like some representation on the City Council.

Belmont’s City Council race took some weird turns with incumbents Phil Mathewson and Dave Warden stepping down and maverick newcomers Jason Born and Broderick Page looking for political traction. Both Christine Wozniak and David Braunstein have solid credentials but Braunstein pulled out of the race at the last minute. There was some discussion of Warden running a write-in campaign, but Braunstein had a change of heart and decided to give the run a go. Though many voters may have turned off by Braunstein’s waffling, he has proven to have a firm grasp of the city’s issues and has become a viable candidate. Look for both Wozniak and Braunstein to win since both seem to have a handle on what the majority of this election’s voters will want in city leadership. Unless, of course, voters mistake Born with the character Matt Damon plays in the movies and want to add some excitement to council meetings.

In South San Francisco, Mayor Rich Garbarino will win and Kevin Mullin’s name recognition and regional approach to local issues will land him a seat.

San Carlos is wide open. Planning Commissioner Randy Royce seems a natural choice and has plenty of support. The next seat is between Alex Phillips and Omar Ahmad. If there were a state or national election on the ballot, Ahmad would win. However, his background as a entrepreneur and blunt speaking style may put off the older voters who will likely turn out for this one. Phillips is more of a known quantity with his experience on the Planning Commission and as a previous candidate. Look for him to pull it out.

But the most wide open race on the Peninsula has to be Millbrae. With three members of the City Council termed out, there are plenty of challengers. Former councilman Dan Quigg is a shoo-in with longtime volunteer Marge Colapietro a solid second choice. The next seat is harder to gauge. Lorrie Kalos-Gunn has run a fine campaign but Paul Seto and Wayne Jone Lee seem to be competing for the next seat. Look for Seto to just barely edge out Lee. It’s just a hunch.

Whether these candidates are best for their respective cities is not for me to tell, though the Daily Journal has endorsed some candidates that will not likely win. However, the low voter turnout predicted for Tuesday means the candidates with the most active backers will win and as always, people deserve the leaders they get.

***

The Burlingame High School Band Play-a-thon raised more than $15,000 last week. The Play-a-thon is the band’s primary fund-raiser and instructor David Kimura said he was hoping to raise $10,000.

***

Congratulations to Jeff Yates and his wife Gloria for the birth of their son Wednesday. Jeff is brother to Daily Journal reporter Dana Yates. The baby’s name? Gary.


Jon Mays is the editor in chief of the Daily Journal. He can be reached at jon@smdailyjournal.com.


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