Erik Oeverndiek/Daily Journal The Palo Alto Medical Foundation wants to build a hospital at this site on Industrial Road in San Carlos.

The one thing both sides agree on is that the $300 million project will bring an unavoidable and serious amount of traffic.

Like nearly every other aspect of the debate surrounding PAMF, however, the question of exactly how much traffic and if it is an insurmountable problem doesn’t have a clear-cut answer.

Traffic concerns color nearly any discussion or public hearing even though the process of certifying the environmental documents isn’t even finished. The Environmental Impact Review just flew through the Traffic and Transportation Commission and is on its way to the Planning Commission and City Council for approval.

Only then is the project to be evaluated on its merits, including how much traffic is too much for the area around 301 Industrial Road.

Specifically, the EIR found the following intersections questionable if the hospital is built: El Camino/Holly, Old County Road/Holly, Alameda de las Pulgas/Brittan, Holly/Industrial and Brittan/Industrial. The report doesn’t label the medical center itself as the cause of traffic problems but found it will create congestion when combined with other developments.

The report also cites air quality as a significant impact of the project and vibrations from pile driving during construction of the 478,500-square-foot facility and four-story parking garages. Neither of these, though, come close to the debate over traffic.

At the request of a city-hired consultant, PAMF agreed to a number of fixes, including funding all traffic mitigations in the EIR like an alternative shuttle program and reserved parking for employees to encourage commuting and public transportation.

The programs will cost PAMF $1.2 million to start and more than $800,000 annually for the life of the medical center, said spokesman Ben Drew.

PAMF also plans to pay its share of road improvements and traffic mitigations adopted as part of the East Side Plan. This includes a dedicated left turn lane on eastbound Brittan toward Industrial, Drew said.

Altogether, the city’s traffic consultant estimated the efforts could cut trips by at least 10 and possibly 20 percent.

While PAMF wants to ease as much traffic problems as possible, Drew said, he emphasized that much of it is based on the cumulative effect of the project plus the assumed development of 1.9 million square feet of space after the 110-bed hospital, clinic and office building opens in 2011.

Currently, Nektar Therapeutics operates near the proposed PAMF site but the company has not issued any formal stances on the project or its estimated effect.

Opposition to project

PAMF will be “a major, growing contributor to the strain on the infrastructure of the Industrial Road area,” wrote Sol Kutner, chairman of San Carlos Citizens for Responsible Planning, on the grassroots groups’ Web site devoted to stopping PAMF.

The East Side plan that mentions the 1.9 million square feet of space hasn’t been adopted and is “entirely speculative at this point,” Drew said.

Even if the area is developed, the intersections and traffic won’t be unmanageable, Drew said.

At least resident, however, can’t imagine the area will be that developed or — regardless — more burdened by traffic than it was before the grade separations and company vacancies.

“Frankly, I don’t think the worst case scenario will ever happen,” said Fred Koehler, a member of a city committee to revise the East Side plan and former CEO of Eimac.

Eimac occupied the space at 301 Industrial Road before its sale to PAMF and generated about 1,000 trips daily with many in peak hours, he said.

“I would argue it is better now than it was when we were there and in my view even when PAMF completes the project it will be no worse,” Koehler said.

PAMF has estimated more than 2,000 patients daily at the site.

Koehler believes the opposition to PAMF — traffic and otherwise — is generated by Sequoia Hospital supporters who are trying to keep the competition from coming to town. Stanford University is also opening a clinic in Redwood City on the former site of Excite@home.

Discussion of merits comes later

Until the EIR is certified, however, the only issues up for discussion is if the document is complete. The merits come later, although that hasn’t stopped those who will make a final decision from pondering traffic, too.

“It’s an interesting dilemma. PAMF won’t be the straw that breaks the camel’s back but it will put us close. Once it does, there will be no more development on the East Side so we have to decide if we want to allow it in without the benefit of sales tax,” said Councilman Matt Grocott.

Grocott sees the EIR as assuming more traffic and people than will likely congregate at one time if PAMF succeeds.

“All you have to do is look at the traffic expectations for a different project like Pacific Hacienda. They expected congestion and a mess every morning but it never did happen,” Grocott said.

By focusing on traffic, however, Drew said naysayers are overlooking the potential benefits of PAMF. Not only will there be another health care outlet, he said, but PAMF and the city proposed a development agreement that would generate at least $782,000 in annual revenue plus the one-time contribution to fields and schools.

The announcement of the agreement was met by some who felt it wasn’t enough or labeled it a bribe and others who see the money as way for the city to get more money that it would from sales tax

The development came after an analysis found the city could recoup more money from a different use — such as an auto dealership or retail complex — on the 18 acres.

Even if PAMF is denied the new medical complex, it will still own the land and San Carlos residents might be faced with a suggestion less palatable than a hospital.

“Something is going to go on this site. It’s not going to be an empty lot,” Drew said.

PAMF officials, he added, haven’t bandied about solid ideas yet for a Plan B.

“We are fully committed to this project and are going forward with the idea it will happen,” Drew said.

Michelle Durand can be reached by e-mail: michelle@smdailyjournal.com or by phone: (650) 344-5200 ext. 102. What do you think of this story? Send a letter to the editor: letters@smdailyjournal.com.

Info box: The San Carlos Planning Commission meets 7 p.m. March 5 at City Hall, 600 Elm St., San Carlos.

The City Council meets 7 p.m. March 26 at the same location.